瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the reduction of the RKAB plan quota in Indonesia next year may lead to tight raw material supply, but the supply is expected to be relatively loose in the first quarter [3] - The production of ferronickel in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; the production capacity of refined nickel in China is large, and with the recent rebound of nickel prices and profit repair, the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand [3] - The domestic nickel inventory shows an increasing trend, and the market mainly purchases on dips, with high spot premiums; the overseas LME inventory continues to increase [3] - Technically, with high - position price fluctuations and large differences between long and short positions, the price is expected to have a wide - range adjustment. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range adjustment in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA10, with the range of 140,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 142,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 560 yuan/ton; the spread between the 02 - 03 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,975 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 69,610 lots, a decrease of 6,282 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 62,473 lots, a decrease of 3,345 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 284,664 tons, a decrease of 72 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 48,180 tons (weekly), an increase of 1,530 tons; the total LME nickel cancelled warrants is 10,914 tons, a decrease of 1,236 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 41,584 tons, an increase of 432 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 145,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 145,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton; the basis of the NI main contract is 3,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,410 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 201.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.94 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 134.33 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,273.38 million tons (weekly), a decrease of 46.39 million tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.84 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons (monthly), an increase of 1,120 tons; the total output of ferronickel is 22,100 metal tons (monthly), a decrease of 800 metal tons [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons (monthly), an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons (weekly), a decrease of 2,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's speech at Davos: Greenland is a core security interest of the United States, but the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US had reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and would not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being [3] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from certain major powers [3] - Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas [3] - Trump said that he may have selected a person to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve, hopes to be like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]