Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-22 09:22Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a volatile adjustment, with the price expected to be in the range of 24,200 - 24,700 yuan/ton. Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some bright spots in the automotive sector due to policy support. Downstream purchasers mainly buy on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventories have decreased, LME zinc inventories are stable, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, positions have decreased, prices have adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,175 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 218,500 lots, down 117 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,533 lots, up 1,407 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are 76,311 tons, up 2,459 tons; LME inventories are 111,850 tons, down 450 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 40.12 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production value is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. Social zinc inventories are 1.122 million tons, up 58,000 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.25%, down 2.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.26%, down 2.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.51%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.74%, up 0.02 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and will not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being. Canadian Prime Minister Carney gave a speech saying that the rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from some major powers. Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas. The European Parliament announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump said he may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]