银河期货花生日报-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts is increasing, but the downstream demand remains weak. The peanut price is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term. The peanut oil spot price is stable, and the peanut meal price has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mill crushing is good. The peanut futures continue to rebound, and the market trades on the ample supply of oil - type peanuts and low import prices, but the warehouse receipt cost is still relatively high. The 05 peanut contract is in a bottom - oscillating state [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Data - Futures盘面: PK604 closed at 7910, up 14 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 32,210 (up 126.80%) and an open interest of 26,548 (down 1.06%); PK610 closed at 8224, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 67 (down 40.18%) and an open interest of 2,744 (up 0.07%); PK601 had no valid data [1] - Spot and Basis: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, 8000 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, and Rizhao soybean meal was 3090 (up 10). The price of peanut oil was 14320, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8480 (up 70). The basis of Henan Nanyang was - 510, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 90. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 4, and that between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5840. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600 with no change [1] - Price Difference: The PK04 - PK10 spread was - 314, up 22, while PK01 - PK04 and PK10 - PK01 had no valid data [1] 2. Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China are strong. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin (Northeast) and Changtu, Liaoning is 4.65 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin compared to yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan is 3.65 - 3.8 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price in Junan, Shandong is 3.5 yuan/jin, remaining stable. The import prices of Sudanese refined peanuts, Brazilian new peanuts, and Indian specification peanuts are 8600 yuan/ton, 9200 yuan/ton, and 8000 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The peanut spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 7800 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is quoted at 14300 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is quoted at 16500 yuan/ton. The Rizhao soybean meal spot price is up 10 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the peanut meal is expected to be strong in the short - term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Third Part: Trading Strategy - Single - side trading: The 05 peanut contract is in a bottom - oscillating state. Investors can go long on the 05 peanut contract at low prices with a light position [7] - Spread trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - Options trading: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option at high prices [9] 4. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures: Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill crushing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 4 - 10 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread, with data from 2021 - 2026 [11][19]