玻璃日报：延续震荡偏弱-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The real - estate data continues to decline, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken near the end of the month. Although a few production lines still have cold - repair expectations, the capacity contraction may not be as large as the decline in off - season demand. Coupled with the high inventory pressure, it is expected that the glass price will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, and the idea of high - selling on rebounds is advisable. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production - line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures market: The glass main contract opened high and moved high, showing a strong intraday volatility. The three tracks of the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands are downward, indicating a short - term weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 30 - day and 20 - day moving averages, and the support is first to be concerned near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 224,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 924 lots compared with the previous day. The intraday high was 1060, the low was 1037, and the closing price was 1057, up 7 yuan/ton (0.67% compared with the previous settlement price) [1] - Spot market: In North China, the trading was dull, and some manufacturers lowered their quotes; in East China, it was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and manufacturers maintained stable prices for sales; in Central China, there was bargain - hunting, and the actual transaction prices were somewhat loose; in South China, the shipment slowed down compared with the previous period, and the mainstream prices remained stable [1] - Basis: The North China spot price was 1010, and the basis was - 47 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the total production of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, and the daily output increased slightly as the load of some production lines recovered [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 203,000 weight boxes (0.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day compared with the previous period. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was average this week, and the shipment of some enterprises was weak due to the weather, so the overall inventory increased compared with the previous period [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trends of deep - processing orders in the north and south regions have diverged. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can last for more than 20 days; the orders in the north and central regions have declined [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further shrink. However, this month, both real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, and the real - estate demand has not improved. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, and the market's rigid demand near the end of the month is accelerating to weaken. Although a few production lines still have cold - repair expectations, the capacity contraction may not be as large as the decline in off - season demand, and coupled with the high inventory pressure, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [4]