纯碱日报：延续震荡偏弱-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It's advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened and closed higher, showing a slightly stronger intraday trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are opening downward, indicating a short - term continuation of the weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 30 - and 20 - day moving averages, and support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 172,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 13,245 lots. The intraday high was 1185, the low was 1159, and the closing price was 1185, up 17 yuan/ton or 1.46% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: It showed a light and stable oscillation. The enterprise equipment is gradually increasing. Wucai Alkali Industry's equipment has resumed operation, while Xuzhou Fengcheng has slightly reduced production. The overall supply continues to increase, but downstream demand is average, with cautious purchasing and mainly low - price demand - based procurement [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1250, and the basis is 65 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, domestic soda ash production was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. Light soda ash production was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons; heavy soda ash production was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons and above was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% compared to Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared to last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, light soda ash was 824,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,500 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2][3] - Demand: The soda ash enterprise's shipment volume was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [3] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (per two tons) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production is constantly increasing. There is still an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, and the rigid demand for soda ash may further weaken. In general, under the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction continues to intensify. Although exports remain high, alleviating some pressure, the high inventory pressure still restricts price rebounds [4]