焦炭日报：短期偏震荡-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is a wide - range, sideways movement, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance. Currently, the combined inventory of coking coal and coke continues to rise, in a seasonal inventory - building phase, with overall weak supply - demand. Downstream steel mills' hot metal production is relatively stable, restocking as needed. Real - estate investment growth rate decline continues to expand, and medium - to - long - term demand continues to decline. The macro environment is generally positive, with domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts implemented and fiscal policies continuing to be proactive, and there are still expectations for future policies. Overall, the market is expected to be in a wide - range sideways movement [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 16, independent coke - making enterprises' inventory dropped 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons. Steel mills' inventory increased to 650.33 tons, and port inventory rose 6.41% to 265.07 tons. The combined coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a seven - month high, and was more than 2% lower year - on - year [1] 2. Coke Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is - 53 yuan/ton, and also - 7 yuan/ton. The average profit of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 105 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is - 12 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, 1.66 percentage points higher than the previous year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 85.48%. The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, 3.53 tons higher than the previous year [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of coal mines dropped 7.66%, while that of independent coke - making enterprises increased 5.71% to 1132.85 tons. Steel mills' coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the port's imported coking coal inventory continued to rise. The combined coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the same period in previous years [2] 5. News - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that the overall expenditure level "only increases" and the guarantee for key areas "only strengthens". Five departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro enterprises. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that efforts will be made to stabilize the real - estate market this year and support reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises [2]