CPU：服务器中枢大脑，需求的拐点

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to exceed market benchmarks in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in CPU demand driven by AI applications, with a notable increase in server CPU requirements due to the expansion of generative AI training and inference clusters [2]. - Supply-side constraints are evident, with major players like Intel and AMD planning to raise server CPU prices by 10%-15% by 2026, while also reallocating production capacity from consumer electronics to server CPUs [1]. - The global CPU market is projected to grow from approximately $130.2 billion in 2025 to $141.27 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 8.5% from 2025 to 2030 [3]. Supply Side Summary - Major overseas companies are increasing prices, with Intel shifting production capacity to server CPUs, leading to a significant drop in delivery assurance rates for consumer electronics [1]. - There is a persistent shortage of Intel 7/10 CPUs, exacerbated by a shift in production focus, resulting in a growing supply gap in the PC segment [1]. - Upstream material shortages, particularly in ABF substrates due to T-glass scarcity, are impacting server CPU production, with Intel prioritizing server CPU supply [1]. - The average selling price and gross margin for CPUs are expected to rise as Intel and AMD adjust their product mix towards high-end servers [1]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for AI inference is surging, leading to exponential growth in the need for server nodes [2]. - General-purpose servers are entering a significant upgrade cycle as large-scale data centers require modernization due to power consumption limits of older racks [2]. - The emergence of Agent-based computing is increasing CPU demand, as these systems require more processing power than traditional general-purpose computing [2]. - There is a reversal in the market dynamics, with general-purpose servers now presenting compensatory investment opportunities following a period of AI server dominance [2]. Industry Landscape Summary - The global CPU market is dominated by major players, with Intel and AMD holding 50% and 30% market shares in China, respectively [3]. - The Chinese CPU market is segmented into desktop CPUs (50% share), mobile CPUs (30% share), and server CPUs (20% share), with foreign companies holding a significant market share [3]. Related Companies - Domestic CPU manufacturers include Haiguang Information, Hesheng New Materials, and Loongson Technology [4]. - Upstream CPU suppliers include Huada Jiutian and Huazheng New Materials [4]. - Server manufacturers include Zhongke Shuguang, Inspur Information, and Unisplendour [4].