烧碱日报：供需弱势出新低，跟踪生产企业减产情况-20260122

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. The short - term decline is due to low - price warehouse receipts and pre - holiday de - stocking pressure. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern, the price is expected to remain weak, but beware of over - decline and rebound, especially not to be overly bearish after April next year. It is necessary to focus on the start - up of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production cuts of caustic soda producers [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - From January 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.83%. From January 9th to 15th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 88.43% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 58.76% [1] - As of January 15th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 512,100 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.64% [1] - Weiqiao's caustic soda purchase price has been continuously lowered, with a reduction of 15 yuan since January 18th, and the ex - factory price is 630 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement an interest - subsidy policy for loans to small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply situation. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term decline is due to low - price warehouse receipts and pre - holiday de - stocking pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional centralized maintenance seasons. The futures price has continuously hit new lows. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern, the price is weak, but beware of over - decline and rebound, especially not to be overly bearish after April next year. The main downstream alumina has rebounded recently, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is operating stably. Focus on the start - up of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production cuts of caustic soda producers [3]