橡胶甲醇原油：偏多情绪主导能化震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and closing slightly higher. The intraday price center moved slightly up to below the 15,850 yuan/ton level, closing up 1.12% at 15,850 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 55 yuan/ton. After the previous negative factors were gradually digested, the Shanghai Rubber Futures entered a stage of long - short divergence, and it is expected to maintain a stable oscillation trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the domestic Methanol Futures 2605 contract presented a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 2,260 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,212 yuan/ton, closing up 2.03% at 2,260 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. With the re - emergence of geopolitical risks, the Methanol Futures may maintain a strong oscillation trend [6]. - Crude Oil: On Thursday, the domestic Crude Oil Futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and rebounding slightly. The price reached a maximum of 448.6 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 444.1 yuan/barrel, closing up 1.20% at 446.4 yuan/barrel. With the re - emergence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium was re - elevated, and the short - term oil price will maintain a strong oscillation pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points [8]. - As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. With the gradual stabilization of the production schedules of maintenance enterprises this week, the output increased significantly compared with last week. The increase in foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises promoted the increase in the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises. The rising finished product inventory of some all - steel tire enterprises limited the increase in the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, reaching a new historical high. The production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for 3 consecutive years and ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the domestic market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, the total sales volume of the domestic heavy - duty truck market in 2025 reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week ending January 16, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 86.80%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.42%, a small month - on - month increase of 2.49%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.06%. The average weekly methanol production in China during the same period reached 2.0354 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 4,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons compared with 1.9219 million tons in the previous year [10]. - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.05%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 7.30%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 81.89%, a small week - on - week increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.12%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a small month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. As of January 16, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 236 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 69 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decline of 105 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week ending January 16, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China remained at 1.0445 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 114,800 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 26,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 281,400 tons. As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 450,900 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 28,200 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 98,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,600 tons compared with 308,300 tons in the previous year [11]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a small week - on - week decrease of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a small week - on - week decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 272,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [11]. - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) reached 422.4 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.767 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.585 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 745,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.7 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 214,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate remained at 95.3%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points [12]. - As of January 13, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 58,128 contracts, a small week - on - week increase of 776 contracts and a small decrease of 643 contracts or 1.09% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 13, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 193,366 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 72,680 contracts and a significant increase of 87,907 contracts or 83.36% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Basis Change (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 15,400 | +0 | 15,850 | +105 | - 450 | - 105 | | Methanol | 2,240 | +23 | 2,260 | +51 | - 20 | - 51 | | Crude Oil | 419.6 | +6.5 | 446.4 | +5.6 | - 26.8 | +0.9 | 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][15][17][19][21][23]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30][32][34][36]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][40][42][44][46][48].