【冠通期货研究报告】铁矿日报：市场情绪降温，刚需有所松动-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore fundamentals are slightly weak, with supply shipments starting to decrease and demand weakening. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. However, due to the back structure + positive basis and the futures discount, the futures are slightly resistant to decline in the short - term, and the overall downward space of the market is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or +0.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 197,000 lots, the open interest was 566,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.802 billion yuan. The futures market will test the support around 780, and it shows some resistance to decline near this support in the short - term [1]. - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties rebounded slightly, and the swap price stopped falling. The PB powder at Qingdao Port rose by 1 to 795 yuan/ton, the Super Special powder rose by 1 to 674 yuan/ton, and the swap main contract was 103.4 (+0.1) US dollars/ton [1]. - The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder widened slightly. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and it showed signs of stopping decline after short - term decline to the support level [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, especially in Australia and Brazil, while shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are supply disturbance expectations due to weather. On the demand side, hot metal production, sinter powder daily consumption, and sinter weekly output all decreased, and the steel mills' profitability recovered, but the restocking enthusiasm was still weak. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill inventory was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: The US economy maintained "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the CPI in December decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: In 2025, the domestic consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. Service retail sales increased by 5.5%, 1.7 percentage points faster than commodity retail sales. The contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth was 52%, a 5 - percentage - point increase. In 2026, consumption upgrading, policy effectiveness, and a better environment will support the stable growth of consumption [4].