白糖日报-20260122

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,178, up 17 (0.33%), volume 17,654 (down 7,911), open interest 98,101 (up 1,348) [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,276, up 10 (0.19%), volume 292 (down 46), open interest 650 (up 181) [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,158, up 14 (0.27%), volume 221,201 (down 2,149), open interest 477,452 (up 16,093) [3] Spot Market - Prices in different locations: Liuzhou 5,340 (down 10), Kunming 5,160 (down 35), Wuhan 5,630 (unchanged), Nanning 5,310 (down 10), Bayuquan 5,530 (unchanged), Rizhao 5,455 (down 15), Xi'an 5,750 (down 40) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 182, Kunming 2, Wuhan 472, Nanning 152, Bayuquan 372, Rizhao 297, Xi'an 592 [3] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -118 (up 4), SR09 - SR05: Spread 20 (up 3), SR09 - SR01: Spread -98 (up 7) [3] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.16, freight 32.00, in - quota price 3,992, out - of - quota price 5,070, spread with Liuzhou 270, spread with Rizhao 385, spread with futures 206 [3] - Thailand: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,018, out - of - quota price 5,104, spread with Liuzhou 236, spread with Rizhao 351, spread with futures 172 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Brazil (Dec second half): Sugarcane crush 2.171 million tons (up 457,000 tons, 26.60% year - on - year), ATR 127.49kg/ton (up 4.16kg/ton), sugar - making ratio 21.24% (down 11.44%), ethanol output 561 million liters (up 73 million liters, 14.91%), sugar output 0.56 million tons (down 0.1 million tons, 14.93%) [5] - Brazil (cumulative to Dec second half, 2025/26 season): Sugarcane crush 600.397 million tons (down 13.992 million tons, 2.28% year - on - year), ATR 138.35kg/ton (down 3.11kg/ton), cumulative sugar - making ratio 50.82% (up 2.66%), cumulative ethanol output 30.838 billion liters (down 1.642 billion liters, 5.06%), cumulative sugar output 40.222 million tons (up 341,000 tons, 0.86%) [6] - China (2025): Dairy product output 29.503 million tons (down 1.1% year - on - year), December output 2.667 million tons (down 1.8% year - on - year); beverage output 179.253 million tons (up 3% year - on - year), December output 13.421 million tons (up 1.1% year - on - year); refined sugar output 16.21 million tons (up 9% year - on - year), December output 3.59 million tons (up 11% year - on - year) [6][8] Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugarcane is approaching the end of the harvest season, supply pressure will ease. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly output may lead to an unexpected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to low sugar prices and strong commodities, ICE sugar is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [9] - Domestic: China's sugar is in the peak crushing season, and this season's output is likely to increase significantly, adding supply pressure. In 2025, China imported 4.9188 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.5622 million tons year - on - year, also pressuring the domestic market. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to continue to decline, but the decline space is limited as prices are already low, below the cost line of most domestic sugar mills, and international sugar prices provide support. The May contract is expected to have strong support near the previous low [9] Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is expected to be weak in the short term but with limited downward space and strong support near the previous low [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off for now [11] - Options: Hold off for now [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventory, monthly sugar production, Liuzhou's sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar futures' basis and spreads for different months [15][17][19][21][22][26]