胜遇利率周报：资金面平稳，利率债收益率继续上行-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is stable, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continue to rise. The A - share market is expected to maintain a strong performance this week, while the bond market may show a weak and volatile pattern. The investment value of 10 - year treasury bonds at the 1.9% level is gradually emerging [6]. - Upcoming economic data is expected to remain at a low level without significant surprises, providing some support for the bond market. Overseas geopolitical events may also impact the capital market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Capital Market Conditions - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.43% to 1.47%, and DR001 ranged from 1.26% to 1.27%, with little change compared to the previous week [1]. - The yields of interest - rate bonds continued to rise overall. For treasury bonds, the 1 - year yield decreased by 4bp, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 8bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively. For CDB bonds, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 3bp, 4bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively [1]. Market Performance Comparison - As of January 9, 2026, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 58.95bp, and that of CDB bonds was 45.08bp, widening by 7.90bp and 1.71bp respectively compared to January 4 [4]. Other Market Conditions - The stock market has shown strong performance recently, achieving five consecutive positive days at the beginning of the year. The bond market has shown some independence, with the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds soaring first and then seeing bargain - hunting on Thursday and Friday [6]. - CPI was slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the rebound of fresh vegetable prices in food prices, while non - food prices, especially rent, declined significantly, indicating a weak inflation trend. PPI was basically in line with expectations [6]. - US non - farm payroll data shows a tight labor supply, with the probability of interest rate cuts remaining low. However, Powell's criminal case has led to market expectations of increased interest rate cuts, resulting in high risk sentiment in overseas markets [6].