2026 年 3 月 9 日 月初资金面自发转松，利率债收益率短端有所下行 胜遇利率周报 本周 DR007 运行在 1.41-1.46%的区间，DR001 运行在 1.27-1.32%的区间， DR001 和 DR007 中枢均有所下行。 图 银行间债券回购利率（日,%） 数据来源：Wind、胜遇研究团队整理 本周利率债收益率短端有所下行。国债方面，1 年期下行 3bp、3 年期下行 2bp，5 年期下行 1bp，7 年期持平，10 年期持平；国开债方面，1 年期下行 6bp， 0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 3.0000 2022-01-04 2023-01-04 2024-01-04 2025-01-04 2026-01-04 DR001 DR007 3 年期下行 4bp，5 年期下行 2bp，7 年期下行 2bp，10 年期持平。 | 国债国开债变动情况 表 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the fiscal strength of various regions continued to show a differentiation trend, with most provinces experiencing an increase in general public - budget revenue. The land market remained sluggish, affecting local debt - resolution resources. The net financing gap of urban investment bonds continued to expand, and the proportion of new bonds for debt - replacement remained high. The primary - market subscription enthusiasm was high, and the secondary - market spreads showed a fluctuating downward trend [99]. - The urban investment market has been clearly divided, and the unified "urban investment belief" may be a thing of the past. Credit analysis should shift from a general evaluation of government credit to a precise classification of platforms based on their business - government credit binding degree [100]. - In 2025, thanks to debt - resolution funds, the non - standard debt risk of urban investment decreased, but commercial paper overdue still mainly occurred among urban investment entities in heavy - debt regions. In the future, the "differentiation" in the urban investment market will be greater than the "commonality", and investment strategies need to be more refined and forward - looking [100][101]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Review of Regional Fundamentals 3.1.1. Local Fiscal Revenue Review - In 2025, the national general public - budget revenue was 21.60 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Tax revenue was 17.64 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, while non - tax revenue was 3.97 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3%. Central general public - budget revenue decreased by 6.5%, and local general public - budget revenue increased by 2.4% [5]. - In terms of provinces, the fiscal strength continued to differentiate. Guangdong ranked first in general - budget revenue, and Jiangsu exceeded one trillion yuan. Most provinces' general - budget revenue growth increased, with Xinjiang, Jilin, and Tibet having high growth rates. However, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia saw a decline in fiscal strength [10]. - The land - transfer market was generally sluggish. Most provinces' land - transfer revenue decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of urban investment land purchases decreased overall [11][13]. 3.1.2. Debt Burden Situation - In terms of the narrow debt ratio, most provinces' narrow debt ratios increased, with 16 provincial regions having an increase of more than 20 percentage points. 24 provinces had a narrow debt ratio of over 300% at the end of 2025. Gansu, Tianjin, Jilin, Chongqing, Tibet, and Beijing saw a decrease in narrow - debt burden [14]. - In terms of the broad debt ratio, only 7 provinces, including Gansu, Tianjin, Jilin, etc., saw a slight decrease. Guangxi, Yunnan, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia had an increase of over 100 percentage points. At the end of 2025, Guangxi had the heaviest broad debt ratio [18]. 3.2. Bond Market Review 3.2.1. Primary Market - In 2025, the issuance volume of urban investment bonds was 5.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.11%, and the repayment volume was 5.42 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.13%. The net financing was - 0.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 220.54% [20]. - From the issuance side, the issuance volume continued to shrink due to the "borrowing new to repay old" policy. The amount of urban investment bonds "approved" by exchanges increased slightly, while the "terminated" amount decreased significantly. The proportion of new bonds for debt - replacement increased to 81.79%, and the weighted average subscription multiple was 3.09 times, slightly lower than in 2024. The number of cancelled bond issuances decreased significantly [22][23][25]. - From the repayment side, in 2025, the number of urban investment bond repayments was 9,447, and the repayment amount was 5.42 trillion yuan. The proportion of maturity, put - back, redemption, and early repayment was 69.69%, 22.52%, 3.69%, and 4.09% respectively. Most repayment scales decreased, except for redemption [32]. - In terms of net financing performance, the net - financing situation of urban investment bonds continued to differentiate. The number of provincial regions with negative net financing increased from 13 in 2024 to 18 in 2025. Except for provincial - level urban investment, other levels of urban investment platforms had negative net financing [36][40]. 3.2.2. Secondary Market - In 2025, the secondary - market spreads of urban investment bonds showed a fluctuating downward trend. The spreads of different maturities also showed a downward trend, with more significant fluctuations in long - term varieties. Except for Inner Mongolia, the spreads of other provinces decreased compared to the beginning of the year, and the spreads of medium - and low - implicit - rating urban investment bonds narrowed more [43][46][47]. 3.3. 2026 Debt Pressure 3.3.1. Stock and Maturity of Urban Investment Bonds in 2026 - As of December 31, 2025, the balance of urban investment bonds was 14.98 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024. The total repayment amount of urban investment bonds in 2026 was 4.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 32.91% of the stock bonds. The repayment pressure was mainly concentrated in March, April, and August [49][50]. - Jiangsu had the largest maturity scale in 2026, followed by Zhejiang. Yunnan and Ningxia had a relatively high proportion of maturity amount to the stock bonds, facing greater concentrated - repayment pressure [53]. 3.3.2. Refinancing Guarantee for Urban Investment Bonds Maturing in 2026 - The bond issuance in 2025 in Hunan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, and Tibet was insufficient to cover the principal of bonds maturing in 2026, while Liaoning, Hainan, and Gansu had a relatively high guarantee level [57]. - Among 239 prefecture - level cities with maturing urban investment bonds in 2026, 106 cities' refinancing guarantee multiples in 2025 were less than 1 time, and 24 cities did not issue bonds, with weak refinancing ability [58]. 3.3.3. Guarantee of Local Fiscal Revenue for the Interest of Local Debt Maturing in 2026 - The interest - payment pressure of each province in 2026 was significantly differentiated. Jiangsu had the greatest pressure, followed by Zhejiang. All regions' local fiscal revenue had a guarantee multiple of over 1 time for the interest of broad - sense debt maturing in 2026, but Yunnan, Jilin, Jiangsu, Hunan, Guangxi, and Sichuan had a multiple of less than 2 times [61][63][65]. - Most provinces' land - transfer revenue in 2025 had a guarantee multiple of no more than 1 time for the interest to be repaid in 2026, and 11 regions, including Chongqing, Heilongjiang, etc., had a multiple of less than 0.5 times [66]. 3.4. Key Discussion: Future Evolution of Urban Investment Platforms and Deduction of Credit Analysis Logic - The urban investment market is differentiating, and the credit - analysis logic should be based on the binding degree between the platform's business and government credit. There are four types of platforms: traditional urban investment platforms, public - welfare generalized platforms, non - public - welfare generalized platforms, and pure industrial platforms, each with different credit - assessment logics, core supports, and risk warnings [73][74][78]. 3.5. Credit Sentiment 3.5.1. Non - standard Risk - In 2025, the non - standard risk events of urban investment decreased significantly, with only 22 times. Guizhou and Shandong had the most non - standard risk events from 2018 to 2025, but both decreased significantly in 2025. Non - standard defaults mainly occurred at the district - county and prefecture - level city levels, and the number of defaults in most levels decreased in 2025 [79][81][83]. - In 2025, the number of non - standard repayment cases increased, with 10 full - repayment and 6 partial - repayment events [84]. 3.5.2. Commercial Paper Overdue Risk - In 2025, the number of urban - investment entities with commercial paper overdue fluctuated, ranging from 65 to 90. The risk was more concentrated in subsidiaries. A total of 237 bond - issuing urban investment entities had commercial paper overdue. The top three provinces in terms of overdue quantity were Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu [86][87]. - In December 2025, 87 bond - issuing urban investment entities had commercial paper overdue, with Shandong having the highest number. The regional concentration of overdue was very high. The overdue rates of Heilongjiang, Tibet, Henan, Shandong, and Shaanxi were relatively high [91][93].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the credit market from March 2nd to March 8, 2026, covering important credit events, new defaults, rating changes, new non - standard defaults, upcoming bond maturities, and credit bond issuance. It shows that the credit bond issuance and net financing scale have generally increased this week [11]. Summary by Directory I. This Week's Important Credit Events - On March 3, 2026, Luzhou Development Holding Group Co., Ltd. planned to transfer equity worth 1637 million yuan to the Luzhou State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which would reduce the company's consolidated net assets by 6.16% of the 2024 year - end audited net assets [2]. - On March 3, 2026, Shenzhen Konka A's approximately 199 million yuan shareholder loan to Sichuan Hongxinchen Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. was overdue. The company has taken measures to recover the principal and interest [2]. - On March 3, 2026, the entire shares of Jiangsu Sanfangxiang Jucai Co., Ltd. held by its controlling shareholder and its concerted party were judicially frozen, accounting for 81.29% of the company's total share capital [3]. - On March 4, 2026, Vanke's two loans totaling 347.97 million yuan matured and were extended for one year [3]. - On March 4, 2026, Shaanxi Construction Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries were involved in 40 lawsuits and arbitrations with a total amount of 3062 million yuan [4]. - On March 4, 2026, Jilin Credit Financing Guarantee Investment Group Co., Ltd. was involved in three enforcement cases with amounts of 46 million, 72 million, and 124 million yuan respectively [4]. - On March 4, 2026, Vanke A responded to the question about the loan interest rate reduction, stating that it was working to optimize financing conditions and reduce interest costs [4]. - On March 6, 2026, the convener, Industrial Bank, announced a meeting for "21 Wuhan Bishui GN001" due to a significant decline in the issuer's 2023 net profit [6]. - On March 6, 2026, Dongfang Fashion Driving School Co., Ltd. announced that the "Dongshi Convertible Bond" was due on April 8, 2026, and the company expected to be unable to pay the principal and interest on time [7]. II. New Defaults This Week There were no new default entities and no new bond extensions this week [7]. III. Rating Changes This Week - Five issuers had their rating levels上调, and two had their rating levels下调. Two had their credit outlooks上调, and three had their credit outlooks下调 [8]. - The specific rating changes include Huangshan State - owned Capital Operation Holding Group Co., Ltd., Meituan, Zhongyuan Agricultural Insurance Co., Ltd., etc. [7]. IV. New Non - standard Defaults This Week On March 5, 2026, the Ruihaitianze Xianning Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) of Tianfeng Tianrui Investment Co., Ltd. defaulted, involving an amount of 7,312,330 yuan [10]. V. Next Week's Focus Next week, the maturity situations of bonds such as "23 Quanzhou Jinkong MTN001", "25 Dongyangguang SCP005", etc., need to be focused on, with a total repayment amount of 23.48 billion yuan [10]. VI. Credit Bond Issuance Situation - This week, the issuance scale and net financing scale of credit bonds increased. Both the issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased, as did those of state - owned and private enterprises [11]. - Specifically, the total credit bond issuance this week was 192.489 billion yuan, a 169.25% increase from last week. The net financing scale was 68.07 billion yuan, an increase of 131.13 billion yuan from last week [11]. - For urban investment bonds, the issuance this week was 71.175 billion yuan, a 152.11% increase from last week, and the net financing was 11.721 billion yuan, an increase of 41.328 billion yuan from last week [11]. - For industrial bonds, the issuance this week was 121.314 billion yuan, an 180.43% increase from last week, and the net financing was 56.349 billion yuan, an increase of 89.802 billion yuan from last week [11]. - From the perspective of the nature of the issuing entity, state - owned enterprises' issuance this week was 184.769 billion yuan, a 166.27% increase from last week, and the net financing was 62.947 billion yuan, an increase of 126.274 billion yuan from last week. Private enterprises' issuance this week was 7.72 billion yuan, a 267.62% increase from last week, and the net financing was 5.123 billion yuan, an increase of 4.856 billion yuan from last week [11]. - The issuance and net financing of credit bonds of all ratings increased this week. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated credit bonds increased by 130.73% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 74.956 billion yuan [14]. - The issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated urban investment bonds increased by 99.58% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 2.883 billion yuan [17]. - The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated industrial bonds increased by 145.48% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 72.073 billion yuan [20]. - For state - owned enterprises, the issuance and net financing of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated state - owned enterprises increased by 129.96% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 72.253 billion yuan [22]. - For private enterprises, the issuance and net financing of all ratings increased. For example, the issuance of AAA - rated private enterprises increased by 152.38% month - on - month, and the net financing increased by 2.703 billion yuan [24].

Company News Major Public Opinion - The Shenzhen government has received feedback on the proposed support plan for China Vanke from Beijing. After the authorities deemed the amount insufficient, the plan was expanded. The initial private share placement was set at 20 billion RMB (about $2.9 billion), but the revised scale is unknown. The government is considering introducing other local state - owned enterprises to support Vanke. After Vanke's initial attempt to extend the domestic bond term failed in December, it revised the plan in January and got approval to postpone the repayment of part of the principal of three domestic bonds for one year, with funds provided by Shenzhen Metro Group [2]. Capital Increase and Expansion - Gansu Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. received a total of 21 billion RMB in capital increase from 15 relevant city - county financial departments. After the increase, its paid - in capital rose to 36.795 billion RMB, an increase of 20.956 billion RMB. The company has 11 outstanding bonds worth 5.5 billion RMB [2]. Involvement in Major Litigation - Zhangjiajie Economic Development Investment Group Co., Ltd. reported that its subsidiary Zhangjiajie Tourism Group Co., Ltd. and its holding subsidiaries had new, undisclosed litigation and arbitration cases with a total amount of about 37.9009 million RMB as of February 26, 2026, accounting for 13.09% of Zhangjiajie Tourism Group's latest audited net asset value [2]. Operating Loss - Longfor Group Holdings Limited issued a 2025 performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to the parent of about 1 billion RMB. However, after excluding fair - value changes, the core equity profit was a loss of 1.5 - 2 billion RMB due to the decline in development business settlement income and gross profit margin. The group has achieved positive operating cash flow including capital expenditures for three consecutive years, and its operation and service business is developing steadily [2]. Loan Overdue - Lingnan Ecology and Culture Tourism Co., Ltd. had a loan of about 447.0798 million RMB from Guangzhou Bank Dongguan Branch overdue. The loan was previously extended, and the company and its subsidiaries provided guarantees [2][3]. Transfer of Subsidiary Equity - Suining Fuyuan Industrial Co., Ltd. transferred 97% of the equity of Suining Fucheng Engineering Management Co., Ltd. and 3% held by its subsidiary to the State - owned Assets and Audit Center of Suining Economic and Technological Development Zone. The asset scale at the end of 2024 was 1.51 billion RMB. The company has 7 outstanding bonds worth 2.5 billion RMB [3]. Rating Outlook and Credit Rating Changes - Moody's adjusted the outlook of The Bank of East Asia, Limited from negative to stable, with a subject rating of A3. Fitch upgraded the subject rating of CK Hutchison Holdings Limited from A - to A and adjusted the outlook from positive watch to stable. Fitch also upgraded the subject rating of Schindler Technology China Co., Ltd. from BB to BB+ and adjusted the outlook from positive to stable [3].

Group 1: Non-standard Asset Risk Events - A total of 103 non-standard risk events involving bond issuers have occurred since the beginning of 2025, with Shandong and Yunnan provinces reporting the highest numbers at 20 and 11 events respectively[3] - The most affected cities include Kunming, Weifang, and Qingdao, with 8, 8, and 7 events respectively[3] - In the week of March 2 to March 5, 2025, one new non-standard risk event was reported involving the "Ruihai Tianze Xianning Equity Investment Partnership" with a total investment of 73.1233 million yuan[2] Group 2: Specific Risk Cases - The "Ruihai Tianze Xianning Equity Investment Partnership" was established in May 2017 with a total fund size of 200 million yuan, where Hubei Chutian Expressway Investment Co., Ltd. invested 50 million yuan, holding a 25% share[2] - As of July 3, 2023, the partnership failed to transfer the investment shares as agreed, leading to a lawsuit by Chutian Expressway for the transfer payment of 73.1233 million yuan[2] - The Hubei High Court dismissed Chutian Expressway's lawsuit on March 5, 2026, stating that the defendant was not a party to the transfer agreement[2] Group 3: Financial Implications - The total amount involved in the reported non-standard risk events since 2025 is significant, with individual cases such as the "Zhongrong-Xiangrong No. 287 Collective Fund Trust Plan" involving 110 million yuan and "Xiang Guo Investment Fund" involving 13.5 million yuan[4] - The ongoing financial distress in the non-standard asset sector is highlighted by multiple defaults, with significant amounts at stake, indicating a potential risk for investors and stakeholders[4]

Group 1: Overall Bond Market in Shandong Province in 2025 - The total issuance of credit bonds in Shandong Province in 2025 was 997.004 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.84%, and the net financing was 172.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.40% [2] - The issuance of urban investment bonds was 565 billion yuan, with net financing of 55.392 billion yuan; the issuance of industrial bonds was 432 billion yuan, with net financing of 117.108 billion yuan [2] - Considering entities actually undertaking regional financing responsibilities such as industrial holding companies, the total issuance of Shandong's broad - based platforms (including traditional urban investment) in 2025 was 637.603 billion yuan, with net financing of 92.547 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Traditional Urban Investment Bonds Issuance Scale - Qingdao was the only city with an issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, reaching 215.211 billion yuan. Jinan ranked second with an issuance scale of 72.437 billion yuan, followed by Weifang with 46.871 billion yuan. Other cities had issuance scales below 40 billion yuan [2] Net Financing - After Qingdao, Jinan had net financing of 8.163 billion yuan. Provincial - level urban investment and Heze City also had net financing above 5 billion yuan. Linyi, Rizhao, and Tai'an had net financing above 4 billion yuan [2][5] Yield - There was still some "digging space" in Shandong. Five prefecture - level cities had a weighted average coupon rate above 3%. Liaocheng was above 3.5%, and Weifang, Jining, Zaozhuang, and Weihai were in the range of 3.1% - 3.4% [6][7] Group 3: Broad - based Platform Bonds Issuance Scale - Qingdao was still the only city with an issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan. Jinan exceeded 80 billion yuan, and Weifang exceeded 50 billion yuan. The provincial - level platform was above 40 billion yuan [10] Net Financing - Liaocheng, Dezhou, and Weihai had negative net financing. The net financing of Qingdao's platforms and provincial - level platforms was above 20 billion yuan, and Jinan exceeded 10 billion yuan [12] Yield - Most regions had small differences in the weighted average coupon rate between broad - based platforms and traditional urban investment bonds. Only Liaocheng had a difference of more than 5BP, and Weifang, Dongying, and Yantai had differences of more than 2BP [12] Group 4: Industrial Bonds Issuance Scale by Industry - In 2025, Shandong's industrial bond issuances involved 26 industries. The toll road industry had the highest issuance scale, reaching 62.2 billion yuan, and industrial holding was another industry with issuance above 60 billion yuan [15] Net Financing by Industry - Most industries in Shandong achieved positive net financing in 2025. Industrial holding had the highest net financing, far exceeding other industries. Coal, toll roads, and the chemical industry also had net financing above 10 billion yuan [19] Yield by Industry - Retail and comprehensive were the only two industries with a weighted average coupon rate above 3%. The water service industry was close to 3%, and other industries were below 2.7% [21] Group 5: Bond Issuers by Enterprise Nature Issuance Proportion - Local state - owned enterprises were the absolute core of Shandong's bond market in 2025, accounting for nearly 92% of the issuance. Considering central state - owned enterprises, the proportion of state - owned enterprises exceeded 96% [24] Yield - The weighted average coupon rates of private enterprises and state - owned enterprises in Shandong were basically the same, slightly above 2.5%. Collective enterprises were slightly below 2.5%, and central state - owned enterprises were below 2% [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a weekly summary of non - standard asset risk events from February 9 to February 28, 2025, including new events and a comprehensive list of non - standard risk events involving bond - issuing entities since 2025 [1][2] Summary by Relevant Content New Non - Standard Risk Events in the Report Period - On February 9, 2026, 3 new non - standard risk events occurred, with 1 involving a bond - issuing entity, which was the "Zhongrong - Xiangrong 287th Collective Fund Trust Plan" on February 11. This trust plan, issued by Zhongrong International Trust Co., Ltd., has a total scale of 1.1 billion yuan, and the funds are invested in the perpetual debt of Huaxia Happiness. As of 2026, the trust plan is considering taking legal action against relevant parties [2] Statistics of Non - Standard Risk Events Involving Bond - Issuing Entities - As of the end of last week, there were 102 non - standard risk events involving bond - issuing entities since 2025. By province, Shandong and Yunnan had 20 and 11 events respectively, followed by Guangdong with 9 and Shaanxi with 7. By prefecture - level city, Kunming, Weifang, and Qingdao had relatively more occurrences, with 8, 8, and 7 events respectively. Since 2026, there have been 14 such events, mainly in Shandong and Tianjin, with 4 and 3 events respectively. By prefecture - level city, Dezhou, Shenzhen, and Xi'an each had 2 events [3] Detailed List of Non - Standard Risk Events Involving Bond - Issuing Entities - The report provides a detailed list of non - standard risk events involving bond - issuing entities since 2025, including event dates, product names, involved bond - issuing entities, financing parties, risk types, involved regions, and involved amounts. The risk types include "defaulted", "risk warning", and "repaid" [4][6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on non - standard asset risk events from January 30, 2025, to February 4, 2026, including details of new risk events, their status, and related information about the involved entities [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Non - standard Risk Events Last Week - There were 5 new non - standard risk events last week, 3 of which involved bond - issuing entities. The "Everbright Yongming - CITIC Guoan Mianhuapian Renovation Project Real Estate Debt Investment Plan" was in default, the "China Jianyin Investment Anquan 593 (Qingdao Sunac) Collective Fund Trust Plan" was repaid, and the "Shaanxi International Trust Fengdong New City Urban Development Fund Collective Fund Trust Plan" was in default [2] Details of Each Risk Event Everbright Yongming - CITIC Guoan Mianhuapian Renovation Project Real Estate Debt Investment Plan - In November 2016, Everbright Yongming Asset Management Co., Ltd. issued a debt investment plan with a raised fund scale of 2.665 billion yuan for the Mianhuapian renovation project. CITIC Guoan Group Co., Ltd. provided guarantee. It defaulted in 2019, and the cumulative impairment loss of the investor ChangSheng Life Insurance Co., Ltd. reached 68.57 million yuan by the 4th quarter of 2025 [2] China Jianyin Investment Anquan 593 (Qingdao Sunac) Collective Fund Trust Plan - In January 2021, China Jianyin Investment Trust Co., Ltd. issued a trust loan to Dongfang Yindu Sunac Investment Co., Ltd. The loan matured early in May 2022. After a series of arrangements, the principal and income of the trust product were fully recovered by February 2, 2026 [3][4] Shaanxi International Trust Fengdong New City Urban Development Fund Collective Fund Trust Plan - Established in October 2023, the trust funds are invested in infrastructure projects in Fengdong New City. As of February 4, 2026, two subsidiaries of Mengcao Eco - Environment (Group) Co., Ltd. had 135 million yuan of principal overdue, and the recovery of the trust plan balance is uncertain [4] Analysis of Fengdong Holdings - Fengdong Holdings is an important entity in Fengdong New City. As of June 2025, its asset - liability ratio was 72.70%, with a large proportion of non - standard debt. It has a large short - term debt repayment pressure and bond payment pressure, but its refinancing ability is acceptable [5] Regional Risk in Xixian New Area - Since 2025, there have been multiple default and extension events in Xixian New Area. The regional debt scale is large, with a GDP of 94.12 billion yuan in 2024 and a growth rate of 5.40%, and local government debt and urban investment interest - bearing debt balances are high [6] Statistics of Non - standard Risk Events - As of last weekend, there were 101 non - standard risk events involving bond - issuing entities in 2025, mainly in Shandong and Yunnan. In 2026, there were 13 such events, mainly in Shandong and Tianjin [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - standard risk events have significantly eased in 2025, hitting a new low since 2019, mainly due to the implementation of debt - resolution policies, increased attention and initiative of urban investment platforms in non - standard product payments, and bank replacement of non - standard debts [2][6][26][65]. - However, the risk mitigation is structurally differentiated. Some regions and industries still face risks, and the resolution and clearance of non - standard credit risks remain a long - term task. The potential for non - standard risks to spread to priority debts such as bonds still needs attention [3][26][65]. - The debt security of the real estate industry depends on sales revenue. Without improvement in sales, risks are difficult to eliminate unless there is strong support from the actual controller. Tail risks in industries such as industrial holding, diversified finance, and construction also need to be vigilant [3][26][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - standard Default Overall Situation - From 2018 - 2025, there were 7,219 non - standard risk events in total. The number of "default events" reached a peak of 978 in 2023, then decreased significantly in 2024 and 2025, with 165 events in 2025, a decrease of 544 from the previous year [6]. - For different financing methods, the number of trust plan risk events increased from 319 in 2019 to 570 in 2023, then decreased to 210 in 2025. The number of directional financing risk events increased significantly in 2023 - 2024 and decreased to 23 in 2025. The number of non - standard events in financing methods such as financial leasing, private funds, collective wealth management, and fund special accounts decreased year by year [6]. - For bond - issuing entities, the number of non - standard risk events in 2025 was 76, a significant decrease from 218 in 2024. The number of non - standard default events decreased by 86 in 2025 compared with the previous year, and the number of non - standard risk warning events decreased by 56 [8][10]. 3.2 Analysis of Urban Investment Non - standard Risk Events 3.2.1 By Province - Guizhou and Shandong had the most non - standard risk events among urban investment bond - issuing entities since 2018. Guizhou's non - standard default events decreased to 4 in 2025 from a peak of 55 in 2023. Shandong's non - standard default events decreased to 9 in 2025 after a sharp increase in 2023 - 2024. Henan, Yunnan, and Shaanxi also saw a significant decrease in non - standard default events in 2025, and Inner Mongolia had no new non - standard risk events in 2025 [28]. 3.2.2 By Urban Investment Hierarchy - Non - standard defaults of urban investment enterprises mainly occurred at the district - county and prefecture - level city levels. The number of non - standard default events of district - county - level urban investment platforms decreased to 12 in 2025 from 110 in 2023. The number of non - standard default events of prefecture - level city urban investment platforms also decreased in 2025. In 2025, there were no new non - standard default events at the provincial level [34]. 3.2.3 By Prefecture - level City (including Development Zones within Prefecture - level Cities) - The top five prefecture - level cities with the most non - standard default events were Zunyi, Weifang, Xi'an, Kunming, and Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture. In 2025, Weifang and Kunming had new non - standard default events, and Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture had its first non - standard default event at the prefecture - level city level [34]. 3.2.4 By District - county - The top five district - county regions with the most non - standard default events were Hanting District of Weifang, Licang District of Qingdao, Boshan District of Zibo, Dushan County of Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, and Huichuan District of Zunyi. In 2025, the non - standard default events in most districts and counties decreased, and 50 districts and counties had no new non - standard risk events [39]. 3.2.5 Bond - issuing Urban Investment Entities with Multiple Non - standard Defaults - In 2025, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Yunnan were still areas with serious non - standard defaults of urban investment. Urban investment entities in Kunming of Yunnan, Licang District of Qingdao, Hanting District of Weifang, Mengzi City of Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture, and Weifang Binhai Economic and Technological Development Zone had 2 or more non - standard default events [44]. 3.2.6 Bond - issuing Urban Investment Entities with First Non - standard Defaults - In 2025, 5 bond - issuing urban investment entities had their first non - standard default, located in Shaanxi, Shandong, Sichuan, Fujian, and Yunnan. Rizhao Donggang District, Mianyang Jiangyou City, Putian Hanjiang District, and Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture were new areas with non - standard defaults [46]. 3.3 Analysis of Characteristics of Non - standard Risk Events in 2025 - In 2025, there were 82 non - standard risk events and 69 repayment events. Trust plans had the most non - standard risk events (44 times), including 30 default events. The industries with non - standard risk events were mainly urban investment and real estate development, accounting for 48% and 30% respectively [49][55]. - For bond - issuing entities, there were 23 non - standard risk events, including 19 default events and 4 extension events; 12 repayment events and 9 partial repayment events. In terms of regions, Shandong had the most non - standard risk events (6 times), followed by Shaanxi and Fujian (4 times each) [49][55]. - For urban investment bond - issuing entities, there were 9 default events and 2 extension events, involving 8 entities. The default events were mainly in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Guizhou. In terms of hierarchy, non - standard risk events occurred at the district - county and national new - area levels [58]. - There were 16 non - standard repayment events of urban investment bond - issuing entities in 2025, including 10 full - repayment events and 6 partial - repayment events. Other industries had 12 non - standard risk events, mainly in the real estate industry [59][63]. 3.4 Summary - Non - standard risk events have improved significantly in 2025, but the risk mitigation is structural. The non - standard debt is still in an inferior position in the repayment order, and the debt continuation in weak regions is still difficult. The potential spread of non - standard risks to priority debts needs attention [65][66]. - In the real estate industry, debt security depends on sales revenue. Tail risks in industries such as industrial holding, diversified finance, and construction also need to be vigilant [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The capital market remains loose, and the yields of interest - rate bonds have declined slightly overall. The risk - assets in the market continued to decline this week, but the mood improved on Friday. The Fed's new chairman nomination has raised doubts about the degree of easing, while the double - easing policy brought about by the high - vote victory of Japan's Komeito Party is expected to enhance global liquidity and support the subsequent rise of risk - assets. Before the holiday, it is expected that risk - assets may rise further, and the liquidity environment will improve. It is recommended to maintain the bond position for the upcoming nine - day holiday [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Capital and Interest - rate Bond Yield Situation - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.46% to 1.50%, and DR001 ranged from 1.28% to 1.36%. The central levels of DR001 and DR007 both declined compared with the previous week [1] - The yields of interest - rate bonds declined slightly this week. For treasury bonds, the 1 - year yield rose 2bp, the 3 - year and 5 - year yields declined 2bp each, the 7 - year yield declined 1bp, and the 10 - year yield remained flat. For CDB bonds, the 1 - year yield declined 1bp, the 3 - year yield declined 2bp, the 5 - year yield declined 4bp, the 7 - year yield declined 3bp, and the 10 - year yield declined 3bp [1][2] 3.2 Yield Changes of Treasury Bonds and CDB Bonds | Variety | 1 - year | 3 - year | 5 - year | 7 - year | 10 - year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Treasury Bond (Weekly Change, BP) | +2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | 0 | | Treasury Bond (Monthly Change, BP) | +1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | | Treasury Bond (Annual Change, BP) | -1 | 0 | -6 | -6 | -3 | | CDB Bond (Weekly Change, BP) | -1 | -2 | -4 | -3 | -3 | | CDB Bond (Monthly Change, BP) | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -2 | | CDB Bond (Annual Change, BP) | +2 | -2 | -5 | -6 | -3 | [2][3] 3.3 Term Spread Situation - On February 6, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 48.95bp, and that of CDB bonds was 39.44bp, narrowing 2.18bp and 0.88bp respectively compared with January 30 [3] 3.4 Market and Operation Suggestions - This week, the risk - assets in the market continued to decline, but the mood improved on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index was in the red for most of the day and then closed down at the end of the session. The bond yields were strongly consolidated above 1.80%. Overnight, US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals rebounded significantly [4] - The Fed's new chairman nomination has raised doubts about the degree of easing, while Japan's double - easing policy is expected to enhance global liquidity and support the subsequent rise of risk - assets. Before the holiday, it is expected that risk - assets may rise further, and the liquidity environment will improve [4] - For the upcoming nine - day holiday, it is recommended that both trading and investment accounts in the bond market maintain their positions and do not need to reduce holdings. The upcoming price data is of limited reference due to the Spring Festival date misalignment, and potential emergencies during the holiday should be noted if geopolitical negotiations such as the US - Iran negotiations do not go well [4]