胜遇信用日报 2026年1月30日 | 序号 | 发行人 | 类型 | 事件详情 据彭博引述知情人士透露，黑石集团正就成为新世界发展（0017.HK）最大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 单一股东进行深入谈判。目前，香港富豪郑家纯家族目前持有新世界发展约 | | 1 | 新世界发展有限公司 | 股权变更 | 45%的股份，这意味着若交易成行，郑氏家族将放弃对此项重要资产的控制 | | | | | 权。根据新世界公告，经其与控股股东周大福企业有限公司核实，尚未就潜 | | | | | 在投资金额等达成任何协议。 | | | | | 近期多地政府工作报告聚焦防范化解重大风险，将地方政府债务风险防控作 | | | | | 为 2026 年重点任务。陕西、河南、青海等地均强调稳妥化解存量债务、坚决 | | | | | 遏制新增隐性债务，推进融资平台市场化转型与有序退出，并加强债务全生 | | 2 | - | 监管政策趋势 | 命周期管理和资金链监管。中央经济工作会议亦明确要求积极有序化债、优 | | | | | 化债务重组置换，杜绝违规举债。专家指出，需统筹'化债'与'发展'， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquidity of funds during the tax period fluctuated moderately, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continued to decline. The yields of most maturities of treasury bonds and CDB bonds decreased this week, with the 1 - year treasury bond yield being an exception, which increased by 4bp [1][2] - The domestic bond market showed a good performance after getting rid of the weak start of the year, but the further downward space of yields was limited due to stock market disturbances. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds remained stable at around 1.8%, and it was expected that it would be difficult to decline further before the Spring Festival. The stock market presented a differentiated pattern [7] - Overseas bond markets were mainly affected by the intensified geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Although the probability of a war against Iran was low, the risk of miscalculation among parties still existed. The Fed's interest - rate decision in the next week was relatively certain, and the market generally expected no interest - rate cut [7] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Fund Liquidity - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.48% to 1.51%, and DR001 ranged from 1.32% to 1.42%. The central value changed little compared with the previous week, and the fluctuation of DR007 decreased [1] 3.2 Yield Changes of Interest - rate Bonds - Treasury bonds: The 1 - year yield increased by 4bp, the 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp each, and the 7 - year yield decreased by 3bp [2][3] - CDB bonds: The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 3bp, 3bp, and 5bp respectively [2][3] 3.3 Term Spread Changes - On January 23, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 54.79bp, and that of CDB bonds was 39.76bp, narrowing by 5.21bp and 2.34bp respectively compared with January 16 [5] 3.4 Market Conditions at Home and Abroad - Domestic: The bond market performed well, but the stock market affected the downward space of bond yields. The stock market was differentiated, with large and medium - cap stocks weakening and small - cap stocks rising [7] - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affected overseas bond markets. The Fed's interest - rate decision was relatively certain, with no expected interest - rate cut [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].

Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, Shenghong Technology achieved a net profit of 3.245 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 324.38%[4] - In Q3 2025, the net profit was 1.102 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 260.52%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.2 billion yuan, marking a decline of 129.62 percentage points[4] Asset Expansion - The construction in progress surged from 257 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 3.548 billion yuan, an increase of 1283.08%, indicating aggressive capacity expansion to meet global demand for high-layer PCBs and advanced HDIs[6] - Shenghong Technology raised 1.876 billion yuan through a stock issuance, with 1.326 billion yuan allocated for AI HDI projects in Vietnam and high-layer PCB projects in Thailand, expected to contribute an additional 3.6 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 41.19% of the 2024 PCB hardware revenue[6] Market Position and Valuation - As of October 29, 2023, Shenghong Technology's stock price was 339 yuan, with a market capitalization of 295.048 billion yuan, significantly higher than competitors like Huadian Co. (152.756 billion yuan) and Shennan Circuit (151.884 billion yuan)[9] - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI high-end PCB sector, benefiting from a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.2% in the PCB industry from 2024 to 2029[9] Future Growth Prospects - Production capacity is expected to be released starting in Q4 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth anticipated as NVIDIA's B300 product ramps up production[8] - Shenghong Technology's continuous growth is expected to contribute positively to local tax revenues, with a projected profit of 3.743 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 346.52%[10]

胜遇研究 1 华兴银行再审视 ——银行深度 引言： 时隔一年半，我们再度聚焦华兴银行，对其经营轨迹进行跟踪审视。在 LPR 持续下行挤压传 统息差、资本新规强化资本约束的背景下，上次报告我们提出的华兴银行的核心问题是否解决。 华兴银行是否走出股权困境？最近一年经营及财务端表现如何？高风险资产出清进展如何？资 产质量是否改善？高成本负债结构、流动性管理以及偏低的资本充足率是否得到改善？以上均 是我们再次审视的关键点。 1 截至 2024 年末持股总数为 8.00 亿股。 胜遇研究 3 （一）公司治理 去年我们曾指出华兴银行面临股权困境，部分股东如上海升龙投资集团有限公司（以下 简称"升龙集团"）和勤诚达控股有限公司（以下简称"勤诚达控股"）深陷财务危机和司法 风险，升龙集团和北京鑫通万宝商贸有限公司（以下简称"万宝商贸"）持有的股权被公开 低价拍卖，且多次发生流拍。2024 年 11 月，阿里资产平台显示，该行第三大股东勤诚达控 股有限公司1持有的广东华兴银行 17580 万股股权被江苏省无锡市中级人民法院拍卖，起拍 价低至 1.81 元/股，结果仍无人问津，反映出华兴银行股权流动性困境持续加剧。根据华兴 银行 ...

| | | ——区域研究之山东篇 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 目 录 | | | 一、经济与产业 | | 3 | | 1、山东省区位概览 | | 3 | | 2、经济发展 | | 3 | | 3、产业发展 | | 5 | | 4、上市公司 | | 8 | | 二、财政实力 | | 10 | | 三、债务压力 | | 12 | | 四、城投梳理 | | 14 | | 1、省级 | | 14 | | 2、青岛市 | | 17 | | 3、济南市 | | 56 | | 4、济宁市 | | 71 | | 5、潍坊市 | | 78 | | 6、烟台市 | | 87 | | 7、菏泽市 | | 94 | | 8、泰安市 | | 99 | | 9、威海市 | 103 | | | 10、枣庄市 | 108 | | | 11、德州市 | 113 | | | 12、临沂市 | 117 | | | 13、日照市 | 121 | | | 14、淄博市 | 125 | | | 15、东营市 | 129 | | | 16、滨州市 | | 132 | 胜遇研究 一、经济与产业 1、山东省区位概览 山东省简称鲁，位于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is stable, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continue to rise. The A - share market is expected to maintain a strong performance this week, while the bond market may show a weak and volatile pattern. The investment value of 10 - year treasury bonds at the 1.9% level is gradually emerging [6]. - Upcoming economic data is expected to remain at a low level without significant surprises, providing some support for the bond market. Overseas geopolitical events may also impact the capital market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Capital Market Conditions - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.43% to 1.47%, and DR001 ranged from 1.26% to 1.27%, with little change compared to the previous week [1]. - The yields of interest - rate bonds continued to rise overall. For treasury bonds, the 1 - year yield decreased by 4bp, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 8bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively. For CDB bonds, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 3bp, 4bp, 4bp, 3bp, and 4bp respectively [1]. Market Performance Comparison - As of January 9, 2026, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 58.95bp, and that of CDB bonds was 45.08bp, widening by 7.90bp and 1.71bp respectively compared to January 4 [4]. Other Market Conditions - The stock market has shown strong performance recently, achieving five consecutive positive days at the beginning of the year. The bond market has shown some independence, with the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds soaring first and then seeing bargain - hunting on Thursday and Friday [6]. - CPI was slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the rebound of fresh vegetable prices in food prices, while non - food prices, especially rent, declined significantly, indicating a weak inflation trend. PPI was basically in line with expectations [6]. - US non - farm payroll data shows a tight labor supply, with the probability of interest rate cuts remaining low. However, Powell's criminal case has led to market expectations of increased interest rate cuts, resulting in high risk sentiment in overseas markets [6].

Investment Rating - Moody's downgraded the family rating of Shandong Energy and its subsidiary Yanzhou Coal from Ba1 to Ba2, with a stable outlook [4][5]. Core Insights - The downgrade reflects the high leverage, rising debt, and weakening profitability of Shandong Energy, mirroring the structural challenges faced by the coal industry amid energy transition and cyclical downturns [1][4]. - Despite the downgrade, Shandong Energy maintains a strong resource endowment and financing capability, with overall debt risk being manageable [1][49]. Summary by Sections Rating Adjustment Event Review - On August 1, 2025, Moody's downgraded Shandong Energy's corporate family rating from Ba1 to Ba2, with a stable outlook, and also downgraded the baseline credit assessment (BCA) of Shandong Energy and Yanzhou Coal [4][5]. Shandong Energy Analysis - Shandong Energy is the largest coal enterprise in Shandong Province, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from coal trading and other businesses [7]. - The company has substantial coal reserves totaling 889.74 billion tons, with a recoverable reserve of 177.44 billion tons, ranking fifth among coal enterprises [7]. Profitability - Shandong Energy's net profit peaked at 24.041 billion yuan in 2022 but fell to 15.203 billion yuan in 2024 due to declining coal prices [8][11]. - The gross profit margin decreased from 16.41% in 2022 to 9.81% in 2024, significantly below the industry average of 24.17% [8]. Debt - The asset-liability ratio of Shandong Energy rose from 66.98% at the end of 2020 to 72.84% by the end of 2024, exceeding the industry average [15]. - As of June 2025, Shandong Energy's total interest-bearing debt was 447.58 billion yuan, with a short-term debt ratio of 39.22% [15]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow showed significant volatility, with a net inflow in 2021-2022 due to rising coal prices, but a decline in 2023 as prices fell [24]. - The company plans to invest 84.80 billion yuan in 2025, indicating ongoing capital expenditure pressures [29]. Contingent Liabilities - As of June 2025, Shandong Energy had external guarantees totaling 44.268 billion yuan, with a significant portion related to its investment in Yulong Petrochemical [30]. External Support - Shandong Energy benefits from strong government support in various aspects, including resource acquisition and project approvals [31]. Coal Industry Trends and Influencing Factors Coal Prices - Coal prices have been on a downward trend in 2025, averaging around 80% of the 2024 levels, with some recovery observed in July due to production cuts and increased demand [33]. Demand Side - The rapid development of clean energy has significantly suppressed the demand for thermal coal, with clean energy capacity surpassing thermal power for the first time in August 2023 [35]. Supply Side - Coal production has been increasing, leading to high inventory levels and a decline in capacity utilization, which fell to 69.30% by June 2025 [39]. Conclusion - The downgrade of Shandong Energy's rating is a reflection of the cyclical downturn in the coal industry and individual operational challenges, yet the company retains strong resource advantages and financing capabilities [49]. - The coal industry faces a soft demand environment, but government policies may provide support for coal prices in the near term [49].

Report Summary Company Events - **New Borrowings**: - As of the end of Q2 2025, China Railway Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. had a new borrowing balance of 20.464 billion yuan, accounting for 51.61% of the net assets at the end of the previous year [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited had a cumulative new borrowing of 116.674 billion yuan, accounting for 27.61% of the net assets at the end of 2024 [2]. - As of the end of the second quarter, Shaanxi Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. had a new borrowing balance of 4.015 billion yuan, accounting for 24.60% of the net assets at the end of the previous year [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, Pinghu State - owned Assets Holding Group Co., Ltd. had a cumulative new borrowing of 11.872 billion yuan, accounting for 31.70% of the net assets of 37.449 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [2]. - **External Guarantee Growth**: - As of the end of June 2025, the external guarantee balance of Suqian Canal Port Area Development Group Co., Ltd. was 5.5789083 billion yuan, with a new increase of 1.8564613 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the new external guarantee balance in the first half of 2025 accounted for 37.02% of the audited net assets at the end of 2024 [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the single - household guarantee balance of Chengdu Xingjin Urban Construction Investment Co., Ltd. for Chengdu Xingjin Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. reached 6.2865 billion yuan, accounting for 88.16% of the net assets at the end of the previous year [2]. - **New Bond Issuance**: On September 2, Fosun International planned to issue 4NC2.5 - term, RegS senior unsecured notes with an expected upper - limit scale of 400 million US dollars, to be priced as soon as today, with an initial price guidance in the 7.2% area, and planned to be listed on the Singapore Exchange [2]. - **Asset Transfer**: - Shaoxing State - owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd. planned to transfer 49% of the equity of Shaoxing Public Utilities Group Co., Ltd. and 18.39% of the equity of Shaoxing Cultural Tourism Group Co., Ltd. for free, accounting for 35.82% of the net assets in the consolidated statement for the same period. It was also planned that Shaoxing State - owned Assets Control Group Co., Ltd. would absorb and merge Shaoxing State - owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd. [2]. - Chang'an Huitong Group Co., Ltd. planned to transfer 30.3414% of the equity of Shaanxi Chang'an Huitong Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. to its wholly - owned subsidiary Qinchuangyuan Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. for free, which did not involve a change in the scope of the consolidated statements and had no significant impact on the company's main financial indicators [2]. - **Credit Rating Changes**: - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd.'s long - term credit rating of the company's main body was upgraded from AA+ to AAA, and the rating outlook was stable [2][3]. - Moody's confirmed the "Ba2" corporate family rating of CITIC Resources Holdings Limited and adjusted the rating outlook from "stable" to "negative" [3]. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View No information provided.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The banking industry is facing multiple pressures and challenges, including rising non-performing loan balances and a narrowing net interest margin, despite overall risk being manageable [2] - The asset quality of banks is showing signs of divergence, with rural commercial banks exhibiting the highest non-performing loan ratios, while foreign banks maintain the lowest [13][52] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring individual bank risks, particularly for those with weaker credit profiles, as their ability to withstand financial pressures diminishes [39] Summary by Sections 1. Banking Fundamentals - As of April 2025, the total asset size of commercial banks reached 38,620.74 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.67% since the beginning of the year [6] - The net profit of commercial banks has shown volatility, with a significant decline in 2024 and early 2025, particularly among city commercial banks and rural financial institutions [9] - Non-performing loan balances have been increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.79% from 2017 to 2024, and rural financial institutions experiencing the fastest growth in non-performing loans [10] 2. Individual Risk Warning - In 2024, 77.46% of the 355 sampled banks reported an increase in operating income, while 21.69% experienced a decline, with rural and city commercial banks being the most affected [39] - The average net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.52% at the end of 2024, with a significant number of banks reporting margins below this level [45] - The average non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was 1.5% at the end of 2024, with 41.41% of banks reporting ratios above this level [50] 3. Subordinated Debt Non-Redeemable Risk - The report discusses the importance of subordinated debt as a means for banks to supplement capital, highlighting the ongoing risk of non-redeemable debt amid capital shortages [2] 4. Conclusion - The banking sector is under significant pressure, with individual banks facing varying levels of risk, particularly those with weaker financial health, necessitating close monitoring and potential intervention [2][39]