【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to continue its oscillatory trend, with prices remaining high and stable despite regulatory changes such as grain depots stopping purchases and increased auctions [1]. - The corn market has both support and pressure, with prices remaining high and oscillating. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg price has soared, indicating that the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and entering a profit - repair stage. There is no obvious driving force currently, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The pig supply is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional restructuring. The reduction of sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance, and the market will face short - term structural pressure. The supply pattern in 2026 is expected to gradually re - balance [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Northeast low - protein soybean spot prices have declined, while high - protein soybeans are in short supply with a high - quality, high - price feature. Some areas with 39% protein content commodity beans are priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The 33,058 - ton domestic soybean two - way bidding by Sinograin on Wednesday was fully transacted. The core change in the soybean market is on the regulatory side, with many grain depots stopping purchases and increased auction volume, but prices remain high and stable [1]. Corn - Policy - end imported corn and auctioned corn are continuously supplied to the market, which boosts market sentiment although there is a premium in transactions. The grassroots have a strong price - holding sentiment, and the middle and lower reaches have rigid restocking needs, supporting the strong operation of corn. However, downstream enterprises' low acceptance of high - priced corn may limit the price increase [1]. - The market has both support and pressure, and prices remain high and oscillating. The focus is on the change of grassroots selling mentality and policy supply intensity. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. Egg - The recent sharp rise in egg prices indicates that the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and entering a profit - repair stage, which eases farmers' financial pressure and restores market confidence [2]. - After the price increase, the decision on culling old chickens is hesitant, and the supply is balanced by the decrease in new chickens and the increase in extended - laying hens. There is a small decline after the price peak, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to the marginal improvement in inventory compared to the second half of last year [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it is currently 101.6% of the normal inventory. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million [2]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. - The pig supply is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional restructuring. The reduction of sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance, and the market will face short - term structural pressure. The supply pattern in 2026 is expected to gradually re - balance [2].