油粕日报：美国生物燃料政策预期落地加快-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the far - month contract has strengthened slightly due to the accelerated implementation of the US biofuel policy. The US biofuel policy may weaken the surplus of US soybeans to some extent but cannot provide long - term upward drive. For soybean meal, it is recommended that those with large spot positions consider using price fluctuations to wash the basis, and there is no trend for futures speculation [1]. - The biofuel policy is about to be clarified, boosting market sentiment. The market is cautiously optimistic about the final regulations, believing they will have a positive impact on the demand for raw materials for biodiesel production, including soybean oil [1]. - The exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased, but due to the entry into the off - season of production, it is expected that the inventory reduction will continue. It is still recommended to gradually buy on dips. The rapeseed oil has strong support below, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy in early March, which may bring additional upward drive to the oil and fat sector [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China fulfilled the commitment to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, but only about 5% of the soybeans have been shipped to China [1]. - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is relatively small. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is still unclear [1]. Oils and Fats - StoneX: The market expects the US Environmental Protection Agency to soon issue final regulations on biofuels, including the small refinery exemption policy [1]. - According to SGS data, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 was 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease from the same period last month [2]. - Palm oil buying has weakened due to rising prices, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil export data is due to this. However, due to the entry into the production off - season, inventory reduction is expected to continue [2]. - Although the purchase of Canadian rapeseed has started, the crushing cost under the current 15% tariff is still high, which is not enough to cause the futures price to fall, and there is strong support below [2].