银河期货油脂日报-20260122

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Oil Daily [1][10][15] - Report Date: January 22, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean Oil: The 2605 closing price was 8084, up 40. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8584, 8644, and 8474 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 560 (0 change), 500 (-20 change), and 390 (0 change) [2]. - Palm Oil: The 2605 closing price was 8944, up 112. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8914, 8924, and 9074 respectively. Basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30 (0 change), -20 (-10 change), and 130 (0 change) [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 2605 closing price was 9002, up 55. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 9802 and 9852 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 800 (0 change) and 850 (0 change) [2]. Monthly Spread - Soybean Oil 5 - 9: The closing price was 86, down 10 [2]. - Palm Oil 5 - 9: The closing price was 46, up 8 [2]. - Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9: The closing price was 29, up 20 [2]. Cross - Variety Spread - Y - P 05 Contract: The spread was -860, down 72 [2]. - OI - Y 05 Contract: The spread was 918, up 15 [2]. - OI - P 05 Contract: The spread was 58, down 57 [2]. - Oil - Meal Ratio: The ratio was 2.92, down 0.03 [2]. Import Profit - 24 - Degree Palm Oil: For Malaysia & Indonesia with a 2 - month ship - period, the CNF price was 1078, and the disk profit was -69 [2]. - Crude Rapeseed Oil: From Rotterdam with a 2 - month ship - period, the FOB price was 1043, and the disk profit was -1411 [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory of Oils (Week 3, 2026, in tons) - Soybean Oil: This week's inventory was 877,000, last week was 963,000, and last year's same period was 1,025,000 [2]. - Palm Oil: This week's inventory was 746,000, last week was 736,000, and last year's same period was 469,000 [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: This week's inventory was 275,000, last week was 251,000, and last year's same period was 552,000 [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - SGS data showed that the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 20 were 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: Affected by factors like crude oil, the palm oil futures price rose by over 1% today. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, a 1.01 - ton increase from last week (1.37% increase), at a slightly above - average level in the same period historically. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around -50. The basis was stable. With high inventory, the de - stocking speed is expected to be slow, and the market will likely remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil futures price rose slightly today. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 199,420 tons, with an operating rate of 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 963,300 tons, a 61,800 - ton decrease from last week (6.03% decrease). Although the inventory is decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period historically. The basis is stable. With the increasing crushing rhythm of oil mills and the growing pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream, the inventory may decrease slightly, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The price increase is weak, and it is expected to remain volatile at the bottom in the short term [4][5]. - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil futures price rose slightly today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 275,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from last week, at a neutral level in the same period historically, but the inventory is gradually decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB price remained stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion widened to around -1300. There are rumors of domestic purchases of Canadian rapeseed. In the short term, the available spot supply of rapeseed oil is tight, supporting the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may lead to a weakening and volatile market, but considering the time needed for rapeseed purchases to arrive in March and the expected release of the US biodiesel final plan in March with positive biodiesel expectations, which is beneficial to soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the decline of the near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [5]. Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral Strategy - In the short term, the oil market is volatile with increased fluctuations, many uncertainties, and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Arbitrage Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Options Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Group 5: Related Attachments - Chart 1: East China Grade 1 Soybean Oil Spot Basis (Unit: Yuan/ton) [12] - Chart 2: South China 24 - Degree Palm Oil Spot Basis (Unit: Yuan/ton) [12] - Chart 3: East China Grade 3 Rapeseed Oil Spot Basis (Unit: Yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 4: Y 5 - 9 Monthly Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [13] - Chart 5: P 5 - 9 Monthly Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [16][17] - Chart 6: OI 5 - 9 Monthly Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [16][18] - Chart 7: Y - P 05 Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [20] - Chart 8: OI - Y 05 Spread (Unit: Yuan/ton) [20]