Zhongyuan Securities·2026-01-22 10:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The acceleration of AI applications is expected to significantly reshape the global AI competitive landscape, particularly with the anticipated release of DeepSeek's V4 model [7]. - The Chinese AI cloud market is projected to reach 51.8 billion yuan by 2025 and 193 billion yuan by 2030, with Alibaba aiming to capture 80% of the market's incremental growth in 2026 [7]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic chip manufacturers gaining market share due to restrictions on foreign competitors, particularly Nvidia's H200 [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - From January to November 2025, the software industry revenue reached 13.98 trillion yuan, growing by 13.3% year-on-year, marking a continuous recovery over nine months [13]. - The IC design sector showed the highest growth rate at 16.5%, outperforming the overall software industry growth [18]. AI Developments - Major AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-5 and DeepSeek's V3.2 are leading the market, with DeepSeek's models expected to challenge established players significantly [41][46]. - The report notes that the trend of using domestic chips for training large models is expected to gain momentum in 2026, with DeepSeek already optimizing its models for compatibility with domestic chips [66]. Domestic Market Trends - The report emphasizes the increasing number of devices running on Huawei's HarmonyOS, which has surpassed 36 million, indicating a strong push towards domestic technology adoption [7]. - The AI cloud market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Alibaba and Volcano Engine emerging as the two dominant players [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies like Runze Technology, Sugon, and Zhongke Shuguang, which have significant roles in the AI infrastructure and domestic chip development [7]. - It also highlights the potential of companies like Changxin Technology and Chipone Semiconductor, which are actively pursuing IPOs [7].