【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡上行-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to fluctuate in a range recently. Due to new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, a higher plastics operating rate than PP, and a continuous decline in agricultural film orders, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow. The improvement in the plastics supply - demand situation is limited, and downstream operating rates are expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The recent rebound in crude oil prices was driven by factors such as the temporary shutdown of a Kazakhstan oilfield, the postponed restart of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make purchases based on刚需 [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased in position, fluctuated, and rose. The lowest price was 6,666 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,818 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,814 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.62%. The open interest increased by 11,162 lots to 515,524 lots [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - Most prices in the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6,600 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,820 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand side: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons compared to the previous day, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710 per ton compared to the previous period, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $690 per ton compared to the previous period [4].