【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly, downstream order cycles shorten, and downstream product profits shrink. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and falling agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Directory 行情分析 - As of the week of January 16, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [1][7] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [1][7] - Due to the temporary shutdown of an oil field in Kazakhstan, the postponed resumption of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather, crude oil prices have rebounded recently [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of CNPC Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited as the Spring Festival holiday approaches [1] 期现行情 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,491 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,624 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,624 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 2.43%. The open interest increased by 18,459 lots to 486,782 lots [2] Spot - Most PP spot prices in various regions rose. The wire drawing was reported at 6,200 - 6,630 yuan/ton [5] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [7] - Demand: As of the week of January 16, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [7] - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [7] 原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $785/ton week - on - week [8]