【冠通期货研究报告】螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating on the short - term outlook of the rebar market, expecting it to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Currently, the rebar supply side has strong resumption momentum, and the demand side is supported by pre - holiday winter storage and shows resilience. After the Spring Festival, the recovery of terminal demand needs attention. The total and social inventories are at a low level year - on - year with controllable inventory pressure, but the accumulation of factory inventory requires attention to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm. The low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but the significant recovery in production this week suppresses prices to some extent. The raw material end of iron ore and coking coal has stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that rebar will run with a slight upward trend in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the open interest of the rebar main contract increased by 5,016 lots. The trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with 615,894 lots. It stopped falling and stabilized, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, supported by the 10 - day, 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and stabilized near the 3,100 integer mark. The lowest price was 3,112 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,135 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,124 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.35% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount to the spot price by 146 yuan/ton. The large basis provided some support, and the on - disk winter storage was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 22, rebar production increased by 92,500 tons week - on - week to 1,995,500 tons, and increased by 254,200 tons year - on - year. The significant year - on - year increase in production this week reflected that steel mills' resumption momentum was accelerating, which would suppress prices in the short term [2] - Demand: The apparent demand increased significantly year - on - year but decreased slightly week - on - week, indicating that winter storage might have started. As of the week of January 22, the apparent demand data was 1,855,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 686,100 tons. The overall demand increased significantly compared with last year, showing resilience. There was still support from pre - holiday winter storage demand [2] - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing. As of the week of January 22, the total inventory was 4,521,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 311,100 tons. The social inventory was 3,051,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 77,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 433,700 tons. The factory inventory was 1,489,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 122,600 tons. The total inventory increased week - on - week but was at a low level in recent years year - on - year. The overall inventory pressure was controllable. The continuous accumulation of factory inventory indicated that the production recovery speed was faster than the demand digestion speed, and the inventory pressure at the steel mill end increased marginally. The social inventory increased slightly week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, reflecting better social inventory removal this year, and the pressure in the circulation link was much less than that of the same period last year, which provided some support for prices [2][3] - Macro: The central bank released a moderately loose signal, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the expenditure intensity would only increase. However, due to the drag of real - estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited macroscopically. The loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a low level in the past three years, anti - involution production reduction on the supply side, strict control of production capacity, policy support for demand, marginal improvement of post - holiday demand, and loose macro - expectations [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slowdown of inventory removal speed, accelerated resumption of blast furnace production, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline of real - estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4] Short - term View Summary - The rebar market is expected to run with a slight upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark at this week's low point [4]