鸡蛋日报-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Given that the March contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is low and prices are weak, the upward space for the 03 contract is relatively limited. However, the egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely decline in the next few months [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - Price Information: The average price in the main production areas today is 3.69 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices mostly continued to rise today, and the national average price of culled chickens also increased to 4.47 yuan/jin [2][4][7]. - Inventory and Production Capacity: In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a 5% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in December was about 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. As of January 16, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas decreased by 2.6% week - on - week to 7391 tons, at a historical low [4][5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, up 0.26 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links both slightly decreased [6]. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. Considering that the 03 contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is weak, its upward space is limited. The overall egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and future production capacity is expected to decline [8]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts on dips [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11].