【冠通期货研究报告】甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first quarter, there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point. It is recommended to continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline, but the upside space will also be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and it is prone to a low - level rebound in the overall rhythm. Pay attention to the sentiment change due to recent macro news [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 23.83 million tons, a slight increase of 0.05 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 million tons, an increase of 2.22 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 million tons, while that in South China increased by 3.58 million tons. The port inventory slightly accumulated this week, with 19.80 million tons of visible foreign vessels unloaded during the period, and two vessels still being unloaded not yet counted. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, set up a special guarantee plan quota of 500 billion yuan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures rebounded intraday, and the 60 - day moving average at the daily - line level provided effective support. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline, but the upside space will be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state and is prone to a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the sentiment change due to recent macro news [3]