热卷日报：震荡整理-20260122

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. Total social inventory is decreasing month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has marginally improved, but it is still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory depletion support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. From a technical perspective, pay attention to the support around the 30-day moving average, and maintain a cautiously bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 4,160 lots, with a trading volume of 241,486 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,281 yuan, and the high was 3,296 yuan. The price fluctuated and stabilized during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to the support around the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the 10-day moving average. It closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -7 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline month-on-month and a significant year-on-year decrease reflect that steel mills' capacity utilization has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - Demand: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although the demand decreased slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month-on-month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month-on-month, and steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, it increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation rate this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involutionary competition in depth was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial for prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]