Soochow Securities·2026-01-22 12:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry, particularly in waste incineration, is poised for significant growth, especially in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [5][10] - The investment potential in the ASEAN countries and India for waste incineration is estimated at approximately 250 billion RMB, with a daily waste incineration capacity increase of about 500,000 tons [5][11] - The profitability of overseas projects, particularly in Indonesia, is enhanced by favorable policies and high revenue from electricity sales, with projected single-ton income significantly higher than domestic projects [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Waste Incineration Growth and Overseas Market Potential - The ASEAN countries and India are expected to generate a daily waste production of 1.46 million tons by 2024, with a potential waste incineration market space of 248.5 billion RMB if the incineration penetration rate reaches 50% [5][11] - Several domestic waste incineration companies, such as Kangheng Environment and China Tianying, are expanding their operations in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, with significant project footprints established [15][16] 2. Indonesian Policy Driving Business Model Optimization - Indonesia's recent policy changes have shifted the revenue model from local government subsidies to direct agreements with the national electricity company, significantly increasing the electricity price to 0.20 USD per kWh [24][25] - The government plans to construct 33 waste incineration plants nationwide, with a total investment of approximately 5.6 billion USD, indicating a strong commitment to developing the waste-to-energy sector [24][25] 3. Economic Assessment of Indonesian Waste Incineration Projects - Economic assessments show that the single-ton income from Indonesian projects can reach 582 RMB, significantly higher than domestic projects, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [19][20][31] - The report highlights the sensitivity of project profitability to cost management, with potential increases in return on equity (ROE) if investment and operational costs are optimized [27][28]