保险行业重大事项点评：25Q4预定利率研究值为1.89%，预计2026年上限不作调整

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" for the year 2026, indicating an expectation of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [20]. Core Insights - The latest predetermined interest rate research value is 1.89%, which is 14 basis points away from the downward adjustment threshold. The decline has significantly narrowed compared to previous quarters [2]. - Starting from September 1, 2025, the upper limit for the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance will be reduced from 2.5% to 2%, with corresponding limits for participating insurance at 1.75% and universal insurance at 1% [2]. - The current interest rate environment may still have potential for short-term increases, and the predetermined interest rate research value is likely to stabilize in the near term. It is expected that the upper limit for ordinary life insurance will remain at the current level of 2% in 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Research - The predetermined interest rate research value has decreased by 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating a significant convergence in the decline [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield's 250-day average is currently at 1.76%, with the current value at 1.83%. A further decline in the yield to 1.56% or below may trigger a reduction in the predetermined interest rate research value to the adjustment threshold of 1.75% [2]. Long-term Outlook - The downward trend in the predetermined interest rate research value is expected to stabilize, signaling positive long-term development for the industry. The pressure for asset reallocation is significantly reduced [8]. - The "spread loss" issue for leading life insurance companies is likely resolved, and the price-earnings value (PEV) for some life insurance targets may recover to above 1x [8].