Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economy's recovery momentum needs observation. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts may increase significantly, and there is a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors such as supply - demand, policy, and inventory [11][13][15]. - For black building materials, steel products are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. Iron ore may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Coking coal and coke may show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Glass and soda ash are expected to maintain their current trends [31][33][38]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different outlooks. For example, crude oil is advised to be observed in the short - term with a low - buying and high - selling strategy; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profit on rallies [53][56][58]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends. For example, the short - term of live pigs may be strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure; eggs may oscillate; protein meals are advised to wait and see [77][79][82]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index - Market Information: The central bank governor said there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. Some companies' IPOs have new progress, and space - related projects have new plans [2] - Strategy View: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - term and pay attention to market rhythm in the short - term [4] Treasury Bonds - Market Information: Bond contract prices changed slightly. The first batch of 936 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was issued. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 309 billion yuan [5] - Strategy View: The economy's recovery momentum is uncertain. There is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6] Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rose. US inflation data was lower than expected, and COMEX silver inventory decreased [7] - Strategy View: In the medium - term, the Fed's interest rate cuts may increase, and there is a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper - Market Information: LME copper prices rose, inventory increased, and domestic social inventory accumulation slowed down [10] - Strategy View: The market sentiment is not pessimistic, and copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [11] - Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices rose, and inventory changes were mixed [12] - Strategy View: The decline of aluminum prices is limited, and there is support in the short - term [13] - Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rose slightly, and inventory and other indicators changed [14] - Strategy View: Zinc prices have room to catch up, and need to observe PMI data [15] - Lead - Market Information: Lead prices rose slightly, and inventory increased [17] - Strategy View: Lead prices may oscillate, and need to observe PMI data [17] - Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and nickel iron prices rose [18] - Strategy View: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18] - Tin - Market Information: Tin prices fell slightly, and supply and demand and inventory had certain changes [19] - Strategy View: Tin prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [19] - Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and production and inventory decreased [21] - Strategy View: There is a risk of correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [22] - Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices rose, and inventory increased [23] - Strategy View: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies [24] - Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [25][26] - Strategy View: The market is expected to be strong, and prices may oscillate at a high level [26] - Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices oscillated, and inventory changed [27] - Strategy View: Prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate [28] Black Building Materials - Steel - Market Information: Steel prices rose slightly, and inventory and other indicators changed [30] - Strategy View: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and need to pay attention to relevant policies [31] - Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and inventory increased [32] - Strategy View: Iron ore prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and need to pay attention to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making rhythm [33] - Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and basis [34] - Strategy View: Coking coal and coke prices may show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, and need to pay attention to market sentiment [38] - Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices fell slightly. Inventory and other indicators changed [39][40] - Strategy View: Glass is expected to oscillate widely, and soda ash is expected to maintain a weak consolidation [39][41] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly, and there were changes in technical forms [42] - Strategy View: Pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors, and wait for driving factors [44] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose. Supply and demand and inventory had certain changes [45][46] - Strategy View: Industrial silicon prices may oscillate repeatedly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [46][47] Energy and Chemicals - Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rebounded, and there were different views on the rise and fall [48] - Strategy View: Adopt a neutral view, wait and see, and consider short - selling if the price breaks through a certain level [51] - Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and related product prices rose [52] - Strategy View: Do not be too bearish on oil prices in the short - term, and it is recommended to observe and wait for verification [53][54] - Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices changed, and MTO profit changed [55] - Strategy View: It has the feasibility of buying on dips [56] - Urea - Market Information: Urea prices changed, and the basis was reported [57] - Strategy View: Take profit on rallies [58] - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [59] - Strategy View: Gradually take profit [61] - PVC - Market Information: PVC prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [62] - Strategy View: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [63] - Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [64] - Strategy View: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and beware of rebound risks [65] - PTA - Market Information: PTA prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [66] - Strategy View: Enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival, and pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [67] - Para - Xylene - Market Information: Para - xylene prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [68] - Strategy View: Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities following crude oil [69] - Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [70] - Strategy View: The downward space of PE valuation still exists, and pay attention to the supply - demand situation [72] - Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [73] - Strategy View: The supply - demand is weak, and consider long - buying the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [74] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices showed a pattern of rising in the north and falling in the south [76] - Strategy View: The short - term may be strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure [77] - Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices mostly rose [78] - Strategy View: Near - term contracts may oscillate, and long - term contracts have uncertain good expectations [79] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: Protein meal prices changed, and there were changes in import and inventory data [80][81] - Strategy View: Wait and see due to many negative news [82] - Oils and Fats - Market Information: Oil and fat prices rose, and there were changes in production, inventory, and consumption data [83][84][85] - Strategy View: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term expectations are optimistic, and wait and see in the short - term [86] - Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices oscillated weakly, and there were changes in production and import data [87][88] - Strategy View: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downward space of domestic sugar prices may be limited [89] - Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices rebounded, and there were changes in import, inventory, and production data [90][91] - Strategy View: There is room for long - term price increase, and wait for correction to buy [92]
宏观金融类：文字早评2026/01/23星期五-20260123
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-23 01:11