铁矿石：供需边际变化下的价格运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently in a marginal adjustment phase, with short - term downward pressure and the price center of gravity may be under phased pressure. However, considering factors such as steel mills' restocking demand, inventory structural characteristics, and the season of frequent weather disturbances on the supply side, the downside space is relatively limited. The price is more likely to maintain a weak oscillating trend. Future development should focus on shipping rhythm, changes in hot metal production, and pricing negotiations [2][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas mainstream mines' shipments have entered the seasonal off - season. The weekly shipment data of Australia and Brazil has declined, while the domestic port arrivals remain at a relatively high level, mainly due to the concentrated arrival of shipments from the end - of - year rush in 2025. After the arrival volume is released, it is expected to decline month - on - month. The annual production and shipment guidance of mainstream mines remains stable. FMG's 2026 fiscal year shipment target is 195 - 205 million tons, Rio Tinto's 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment target (100%) is 323 - 338 million tons, and the shipment target for the southern block of Simandou is 5 - 10 million tons. BHP's 2026 fiscal year target shipment volume (100%) is 284 - 296 million tons [7] Demand - Steel mills' raw material procurement has improved, and pre - holiday restocking has begun. There is still room for inventory to increase before the Spring Festival. However, the explosion at Baotou Steel's plate mill on January 18, 2026, and the subsequent planned blast furnace maintenance are expected to affect the daily hot metal production by 15,900 tons, which will have a marginal negative impact on iron ore demand in the short term [11][14] Inventory and Pricing - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is over 165 million tons, a five - year high. The structural strength of medium - grade ore inventory has supported the spot price. BHP's attitude change in the annual contract negotiation is worthy of attention. If the mainstream mines make concessions in some categories and conditions, it may cool down the expectation of continued price increase and release the inventory pressure [19]