Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downside space of the sugar price in the short - term is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the large short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish. Although the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season, the increase in China's purchase of US soybeans supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic meal prices. The possible significant reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. The protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - For oils and fats, the high production and weak exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long - term, the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, the confiscation of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean - oil consumption in 2026 are positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [18]. - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under the previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - festival stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations due to the peak of production capacity, but the realization path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption. The large difference between the prices of fat and standard pigs has led to sentiment of holding back sales and delaying slaughter. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has increased significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction has not been resolved, and the downward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the live - pig inventory piling up later. The far - end price may still be under pressure in the future [24]. Summary by Product Sugar - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5158 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Industry Data: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar production had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton or 1.34% from the previous trading day. The spot price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - Industry Data: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, the production forecast for India was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and the production forecast for China was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China in that week was 13,600 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2768 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - Industry Data: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Among them, the supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24%. China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promised to reduce the combined import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% at one time. As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 30.64 million tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1.22 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 8.12 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, an increase of 6.47 percentage points year - on - year. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8084 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8944 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.27% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9002 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8650 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9830 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - Industry Data: From January 1 - 20, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%. As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (i.e., the B50 plan) this year and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. In December 2025, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November 2025. As of the end of December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. The production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. The export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [15][17]. Eggs - Market Quotes: Yesterday, most of the national egg prices rose, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.08 yuan to 3.73 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao rose 0.12 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui remained unchanged at 3.64 yuan/jin. The supply was limited, the downstream sales speed increased, most traders' confidence in the future market recovered, the inventory in most links was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected that most of the national egg prices may rise today, and a few may remain stable [20]. Pigs - Market Quotes: Yesterday, the domestic pig price rose in the north and fell in the south. The average price in Henan rose 0.06 yuan to 13.13 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.1 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. The breeding side in the northern region showed a mentality of holding back sales, and it may be more difficult for the downstream to purchase pigs at low prices. The pig price may rise slightly today. The sales in the southern market were weak, and the breeding side may still have actions to reduce prices for sales. The pig price may continue to decline [23].
2026-01-23：五矿期货农产品早报-20260123
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-23 01:10