金信期货日刊-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber price has been continuously falling recently and is likely to show a weak and volatile pattern in the future. The futures market is weak, and the spot market generally follows the decline. The downstream market has weak buying, and transactions are mainly for immediate needs. In the short term, with the liquidation of arbitrage positions, the market supply increases, but the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the fundamentals lack effective support, so the rubber price may show a correction trend [2]. - The overall trend of stock index futures today was to open higher, rush up and then fall back, and the market bottomed out and rebounded at the end of the session. Technically, it is generally in a range - bound oscillation, and there may be another pulse in the intraday trading tomorrow. It is still recommended to operate according to the oscillation idea [7][8]. - After the gold price oscillated and adjusted, it reached a new high again, with an increase in volatility and signs of acceleration. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy [12]. - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply of iron ore is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, although there was a small rebound today, the downward trend remains unchanged, and a bearish and oscillating view is maintained [15][16]. - The daily melting volume of glass has been continuously decreasing slightly, and the inventory has also been reduced. The main driving factors are the stimulus policies on the policy side and the anti - involution policy for the supply - side clearance. Technically, although there was a small rebound, the downward trend remains unchanged, and a bearish and oscillating view is maintained [19][20]. - There are two reasons to be bearish on rubber: the macro - environment shows signs of correction, and the rubber futures need to correct and repair as the capital sentiment cools down; the pressure of domestic spot inventory is gradually prominent [23]. - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, and the futures market has shown a weak and oscillating trend recently [25]. 3. Summary by Directory Core Drivers of Rubber Price - Supply: Domestic rubber production has completely stopped, while Southeast Asian countries are still in the tapping season, so the short - term supply is relatively loose. The low - production season will gradually take effect after February, but the support is limited [3]. - Demand: Although the tire production rate has rebounded, terminal consumption is weak. High - priced raw materials suppress buying, and pre - holiday inventory replenishment is unlikely to exceed expectations, lacking the power for continuous upward movement [3]. - Inventory: The inventory in Qingdao area has increased week by week, and the pressure of inventory accumulation continues, suppressing the upward space of futures prices [3]. - Macro and Correlation: The decline of crude oil prices, the weakness of the energy - chemical sector, the price cut of synthetic rubber, and the profit - taking of long positions have intensified the correction of natural rubber prices [3]. Operation Suggestions for Rubber - For single - side trading, it is advisable to try short positions on rebounds. Before the holiday, the market volatility increases, so it is necessary to strictly control the position and set strict stop - losses to avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. Technical Analysis of Different Commodities - Stock Index Futures: Operate according to the oscillation idea [7][8]. - Gold: Take a long - position strategy [12]. - Iron Ore: Maintain a bearish and oscillating view [15][16]. - Glass: Maintain a bearish and oscillating view [19][20]. - Rubber: Be bearish due to macro - environment and inventory factors [23]. - Pulp: The inventory is accumulating, and the futures market is in a weak and oscillating state [25].