寒潮继续推升天然?价格，化?产业向好预期推升利润扩张

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cold wave has pushed up natural gas prices, with US natural gas futures soaring to their highest level since 2022, and the HH natural gas price is expected to set a record for the largest weekly increase since 1990. The cold wave may disrupt natural gas production in southern US and increase demand, while its impact on shale oil production is expected to be limited [1]. - Crude oil prices remain stable, natural gas prices rise, and chemical product prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. The chemical industry chain is relatively dull, with the ethane - cracking ethylene plant and US propane prices being positively affected. The prices of PTA and styrene in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector are supported by market expectations of profit expansion in the chemical industry chain, but considering the large idle capacity of most chemical products, the probability of continuous profit expansion is low [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate, with crude oil still facing geopolitical risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, with high inventories of crude oil and refined products in the US. The impact of the cold wave and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan are temporary, and future price support depends on geopolitical factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [7]. - Asphalt: The price of asphalt futures has risen with the strength of crude oil. However, the supply of Venezuelan oil may increase in the long - term, which will be a major negative factor. Currently, asphalt is overvalued, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is for a volatile market [7][8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: There is an expectation of a significant increase in heavy oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the geopolitical premium has returned, the high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by natural gas and photovoltaic energy are long - term negative factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The sharp increase in natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel oil. Currently, its valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is for a volatile market [10]. - PX: Driven by market sentiment, PX prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but its own structural weakness restricts its upward space. PXN is expected to range between $300 - 350 per ton [11]. - PTA: Due to increased capital attention, PTA prices have risen significantly. Although the supply - demand pattern is expected to accumulate inventory, the processing fee has improved, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - Pure Benzene: Factors such as port destocking, downstream profit - locking, potential tariff cancellation, and the need for a price increase in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector have led to a slightly stronger and volatile trend in pure benzene prices [13][14]. - Styrene: Export disruptions, geopolitical factors, and the overall warm commodity atmosphere have led to a short - term strong and volatile trend in styrene prices. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, this trend will continue [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by capital and the cold wave, ethylene glycol prices have rebounded with reduced positions. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [15][17]. - Short - Fiber: Driven by cost and market sentiment, short - fiber prices have strengthened, and downstream replenishment has increased. The price is expected to follow the upstream trend with slightly pressured processing fees [19]. - Polyester Bottle Chips: The resonance of cost and improved supply - demand has led to profit expansion. The price is expected to fluctuate with raw materials, and the support for the processing fee has increased [21]. - Methanol: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market has both long and short factors. Methanol is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - Urea: With good new order transactions at low prices, urea prices have stabilized and are expected to fluctuate. The market is currently in a stalemate [24]. - LLDPE: The cold wave in the US and the strong chemical market sentiment have driven the price rebound, but the upward space may be limited. The short - term outlook is for a volatile market [28]. - PP: Driven by the chemical market sentiment, PP prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on maintenance plans [29]. - PL: Supply has tightened, and PL prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]. - PVC: Short - term "export rush" may support PVC prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is under pressure. The price is expected to be volatile [32]. - Caustic Soda: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda prices are expected to be weak and volatile [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.71, unchanged), Dubai (M1 - M2: 0.36, - 0.02), etc. [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, for example, asphalt (basis: - 162, change: - 75, warehouse receipts: 45820 tons) [35]. - Inter - variety Spreads: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 358, + 10), 1 - month TA - EG (1630, + 180), etc. [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread monitoring for various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not detailed here [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all showed certain increases on January 22, 2026. For example, the commodity index increased by 0.69% to 2444.59, the energy index increased by 1.46% to 1124.89, etc. [276][277].