炉料冬储?撑仍存，盘?低位企稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, there have been accidents in some steel mills, and environmental protection and production restrictions still exist, causing disturbances on the supply side. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment, the prices of furnace materials have stabilized, and there is support at the cost end. However, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector during the off - season is becoming more apparent, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the upside space of the market is limited. The prices of glass and soda ash have risen from low levels, but the oversupply situation continues to suppress the market prices [1][2]. - In general, the fundamentals during the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the replenishment intensity of downstream enterprises. At the same time, the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the prices of furnace materials still have the expectation of a rebound from low levels. Pay attention to the disturbances of macro - policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The current supply and demand on both sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - For coke, the cost end still has room for a rebound, and there are still expectations of steel mill production resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal. For coking coal, the winter storage on the demand side is still ongoing, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited after the trading logic changes, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the market price is under pressure above; however, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the space for further decline is limited. It is expected that the price will mainly operate at a low level around the cost valuation. For ferrosilicon, the current supply and demand in the market are both weak, the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the sector in the short term [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, there are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]. 3.5 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills continues to improve. The iron and steel production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weak, the inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season is obvious, and the fundamental contradictions are slowly accumulating. The supply side is disturbed, the cost side has support, but the upside of the market is under pressure. Pay attention to the winter storage and replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [8]. 3.6 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have also declined. The supply side may be disturbed due to weather. The iron and steel production has increased slightly month - on - month, the steel mills' replenishment is in progress, but the enthusiasm is still weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are increasing, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the price. The current supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - The supply has recovered significantly, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [10]. 3.8 Coke - The supply has slightly increased, the demand has recovered slightly, and the inventory has increased steadily. The cost end still has room for a small rebound, the supply - demand structure may tighten, the spot price increase will be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal [12]. 3.9 Coking Coal - The domestic supply is stable, and the imported Mongolian coal has increased. The winter storage of coking enterprises is in progress, and the upstream inventory is being digested. The downstream inventory is gradually in place, and the spot market sentiment has cooled. The demand side's winter storage is still ongoing, the supply is expected to decline, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, the spot price still has a small upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.10 Glass - The macro is neutral. The supply is expected to decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the valuation. The supply may be disturbed, the current supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The macro is neutral. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [14][16]. 3.12 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The black sector is trending warmer, and the futures price of the main contract is moving stronger. The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the price is under pressure above. However, the current price has fallen to a low - level range, and it is expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation. Pay attention to the adjustment of raw material prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15][16][18]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and the futures price of the main contract is following the sector to oscillate stronger. The cost is at a relatively high level and supports the price bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, the market trading activity is poor, and the futures price is expected to follow the black sector in the short term. Pay attention to the adjustment of blue carbon prices and settlement electricity prices and the production control trends in the main production areas [16][17]. 3.14 Commodity Index - On January 22, 2026, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.03% in the past month, and increased by 0.05% since the beginning of the year [103][104].