多因素共振,橡胶盘面大幅上行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2026-01-23 01:15
- Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural and related products, including their current situations, influencing factors, and future outlooks. Overall, the market is complex with various products showing different trends such as oscillation, upward, or downward movements. The report also provides some trading strategies and suggestions based on the analysis [1][5][8][11][13][17][19][21][22][24][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Optimistic demand expectations boost the upward trend of oils and fats. US soybean oil futures rebounded significantly under the positive expectation of US biodiesel, palm oil entered the production - reduction stage with good export performance, and led the rise of oils and fats. The overall supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, and the palm oil inventory is expected to decrease during the production - reduction season. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging after a callback and the arbitrage strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5][6]. - Outlook: Soybean oil oscillates, palm oil oscillates strongly, and rapeseed oil oscillates weakly [6]. 3.2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: Overnight US soybeans rose, driving both protein meals to close higher. Factors such as positive Sino - US talks, increased US soybean exports, and expected domestic demand support the price. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of futures prices due to the repair of the discount under high profits [8]. - Outlook: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal all oscillate. Soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal [9]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: The market is in a state of game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor, and the oscillation continues. The supply in the Northeast is in a tight - balance state, while the supply in North China has increased. The downstream feed enterprises maintain a stable inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and need to stock up before the Spring Festival. The policy grain may suppress the price increase [11][12]. - Outlook: Oscillation [12]. 3.4. Pigs - Viewpoint: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the spot price continues to weaken. In the short term, the slaughter rhythm at the end of the month needs attention; in the medium term, the supply pressure will last until April 2026; in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026 [13][14]. - Outlook: Oscillation weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year, and the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [15]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The market price followed BR to rise slightly. The price increase is mainly driven by commodity funds, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [17][18]. - Outlook: The fundamental variables are limited, and the medium - term strategy is to buy on dips. The short - term market may return to wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Multiple factors resonate, and the market price rises significantly. The core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026, and the rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also has a positive impact [19][20]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. The medium - term trend is oscillating strongly [20]. 3.7. Cotton - Viewpoint: The cotton price rebounds with certain support near 14,400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price is in an adjustment period due to the phased realization of positive factors, but in the long term, the price is expected to rise based on the tight supply - demand balance and policy factors [21]. - Outlook: Oscillation strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [21]. 3.8. Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price rebounds slightly. The global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The domestic supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [21]. - Outlook: Oscillation weakly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [21]. 3.9. Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot market atmosphere is weak, and the demand pressure remains unchanged. The import cost is increasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the futures market is under pressure [22]. - Outlook: Oscillation weakly [22][23]. 3.10. Double - Glue Paper - Viewpoint: The double - glue paper rose at the end of the session. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on. The industry hedging enthusiasm at high prices suppresses the upward space [24]. - Outlook: Oscillation weakly [24]. 3.11. Logs - Viewpoint: The market rebounds from a low level due to the warming of the commodity market. The futures price rebounds after hitting the support level, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising due to tight supply [24][25]. - Outlook: The market will operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to operate in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter for the 03 contract [25].