国新国证期货早报-20260123

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, the three major A - share indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends on January 22, and the supply - demand relationships of different products also varied. For example, the supply and demand of coke and coking coal weakened marginally, while the domestic supply - demand of soybean meal was stable but the supply pressure was postponed [4][5]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.50%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3328.65, up 1.01%. The trading volume of the three markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day. The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 4723.71, up 0.64 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 22, the coke weighted index stopped falling and consolidated, closing at 1690.2, up 14.0; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range shock, closing at 1137.6 yuan, up 11.5. The coking capacity is loose, the coke production has decreased due to low profits of coke enterprises, and the real demand for coke has weakened. The domestic coal production of coking coal has increased marginally, the import supply is loose, and the real demand has declined [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the stabilization of US sugar on Wednesday and short - term technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on January 22. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association reported that in the second half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%, and the sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.9%. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%, and the cumulative sugar production was 40.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [4]. Rubber - Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose slightly on January 22. At night, the reduction of the risk of a US - EU trade war also promoted its rise. In December 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. In 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3% [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 22, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1064 cents per bushel, up 0.09% from the previous trading day. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, and it is expected to dominate global soybean exports in the coming months. Domestically, on January 22, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan/ton, up 1.58%. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined continuously, the soybean meal output has decreased, and the pre - festival stocking demand has recovered, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 948,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 49,600 tons, reaching the lowest level in six months [5]. Live Pigs - On January 22, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the supply pressure in the second half of the month has increased. The demand for large pigs in the south has weakened, but the cold wave has boosted pork consumption, and the pre - festival stocking has begun, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 22, the palm oil futures price continued to rise, with the daily K - line showing three consecutive positive days, and the price reached a new high since the beginning of the year. The main contract P2605 closed at 8944 yuan, up 1.27%. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 was 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease from the same period last month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper CU2603 contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling and closing up on January 22, closing at 100,700 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 3.352 million tons. The macro - impact on copper prices was limited. The copper ore supply was tight in the long - term, but there was short - term inventory accumulation in China and weak downstream demand [5]. Iron Ore - On January 22, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up slightly, with a closing price of 786.5 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and the domestic arrivals have decreased, the port inventory has continued to increase, and the iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices in a volatile trend [5][6]. Asphalt - On January 22, the asphalt 2603 main contract rose in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3242 yuan. The overall supply of asphalt refineries is stable, the terminal project construction has decreased due to cold weather, and the short - term asphalt price is in a volatile state [6]. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 764 on January 22, with a closing price of 768.5, and the number of positions decreased by 870. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and future attention should be paid to spot - end factors [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,760 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 301 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the cotton basis price rose, higher than in previous years [6]. Steel - On January 22, rb2605 closed at 3124 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3287 yuan/ton. The steel market's pessimistic sentiment has weakened, but the overall situation of weak supply and demand is difficult to change, and the short - term steel price has stopped falling and may fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Alumina - On January 22, ao2605 closed at 2717 yuan/ton. The raw material prices are expected to decline, the domestic alumina production capacity is high, the downstream demand is weak, and the spot market is inactive [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 22, al2603 closed at 24,055 yuan/ton. The market is concerned about Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum. The supply is normal, the social inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand shows some improvement [6].