格林大华期货早盘提示-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Thursday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The global iron ore shipments decreased this period, the arrival volume declined, domestic mine production increased, and port imported iron ore inventories continued to accumulate. The daily average pig iron output increased, and the steel mill profit rate improved. Short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Thursday [1] Important Information - In December 2025, the output of new energy vehicles was 1.791 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%; the output from January to December was 16.524 million, a year - on - year increase of 25.1% [1] - In December 2025, China's raw coal output was 437.035 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%; the cumulative output from January to December was 4.831782 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi increased by 2.1%, - 1.0% and 2.9% year - on - year respectively [1] - In December 2025, China's excavator output was 37,305 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. In 2025, China's excavator output was 379,643 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.6% [1] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 12.5708 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,700 tons, an increase of 0.8%; the weekly consumption of five major products was 8.0952 million tons, among which the building material consumption decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the plate consumption decreased by 2.6% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - At the industrial level, the global iron ore shipments decreased this period, the arrival volume declined. Domestic mine production increased, and port imported iron ore inventories continued to accumulate. The daily average pig iron output this period was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons. The steel mill profit rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.9% [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set. The support level is 770, and the resistance level is 844 [1]