品种晨会纪要：宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-23-20260123

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak. The supply surplus dominates, and the crude oil market is oscillating weakly [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Time Cycle and View - Short - term (within one week) view of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is weak operation [1] 2. Price Calculation and Fluctuation Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is strong, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] 3. Price Driving Logic - Recently, US President Trump frequently released geopolitical risk signals. The US military aircraft carrier bypassed the Strait of Malacca and headed for the Middle East, and Iran made tough remarks, increasing the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. However, the market's concern about the increased global crude oil supply surplus overshadowed the geopolitical risk, leading to a slight decline in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Thursday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]