有色金属日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of loose policies in the US, Europe, and China, and the recovery of overseas equity markets, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector is not pessimistic. Most metal prices are expected to show different trends of volatility in the short term. The non - ferrous metals sector is generally considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, but the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [2][3][13][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: LME continued to deliver stocks, precious metal prices strengthened, and copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory increased by 8850 to 168,250 tons, with increments from North American and Asian warehouses. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory accumulation slowed down, and the spot discount of Shanghai and Guangdong regions continued to improve marginally. The loss of spot copper imports in Shanghai narrowed to about 650 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2] - Strategy View: The copper ore supply remains tight, the LME market spot is relatively strong, but the North American inventory is increasing marginally, and the refined copper supply is relatively surplus. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 99,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is 12,650 - 13,050 US dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - Market Information: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated with precious metals, and aluminum prices oscillated upwards. LME aluminum closed up 0.64% at 3137 US dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,070 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased with poor market transactions. LME aluminum ingot inventory increased to 509,000 tons [5] - Strategy View: The impact of the US - Europe situation has weakened, and the sentiment has returned to the influence of the economy and policies. The high premium of US aluminum spot and the relatively low LME aluminum inventory limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The demand is expected to improve under the expectation of "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic industry, and short - term aluminum prices still have support. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum today is 23,900 - 24,300 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is 3100 - 3170 US dollars/ton [6][7] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated, the main AD2603 contract closed down 0.17% at 22,855 yuan/ton, the weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume shrank. The price difference between AL2603 and AD2603 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices were flat, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory of domestic mainstream market aluminum alloy ingots decreased, while the in - factory inventory increased [9] - Strategy View: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply - side disturbances continue, so the price support is strong, but the demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [10] Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.14% at 17,145 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 7 to 2032 US dollars/ton. The domestic 1 lead ingot average price was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and LME lead ingot inventories were 27,800 tons and 222,700 tons respectively. The national main market lead ingot social inventory increased by 4800 tons from January 19 to 34,200 tons on January 22 [12] - Strategy View: The visible inventory of lead concentrates declined, the production rate of primary lead remained high and increased slightly. The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the weekly production rate increased marginally. The lead price is still close to the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises is improving marginally, and the social inventory of lead ingots is accumulating. After the winter temperature drops, the transportation of waste batteries is difficult, the pricing coefficient of waste materials increases, and the smelting profit of secondary lead decreases slightly. The lead price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades, but the non - ferrous metals sector is still considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, and the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [13] Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.23% at 24,412 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3199 US dollars/ton. The domestic 0 zinc ingot average price was 24,310 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. The domestic and LME zinc ingot inventories were 30,300 tons and 111,900 tons respectively. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3500 tons from January 19 to 108,600 tons on January 22 [14] - Strategy View: The port inventory of zinc ore decreased slightly, the import TC of zinc concentrates decreased slightly, and the zinc smelting profit increased slightly with the rise of zinc prices. The social inventory of zinc ingots began to accumulate, and the Shanghai - LME ratio stagnated and declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. Zinc prices have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. Zinc prices are still in the process of catching up with the macro - attribute of the sector. The zinc price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades, but the non - ferrous metals sector is still considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, and the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [15] Tin - Market Information: On January 22, tin prices fell slightly, and the main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 409,010 yuan/ton, down 2.25%. The smelting production rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally high and stable, but the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar accelerated, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan was significantly relieved. The sharp rise in tin prices last week significantly suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the market was lightly traded. As of January 16, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory increased by 2560 tons to 10,636 tons [16] - Strategy View: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on prices, and with the withdrawal of speculative funds, tin prices may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 390,000 - 440,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is 48,000 - 54,000 US dollars/ton [17] Nickel - Market Information: On January 22, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 140,410 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose significantly [18] - Strategy View: Although the output of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of the reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, Shanghai nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME nickel 3M is 16,000 - 19,000 US dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 165,701 yuan, up 3.62%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5750 yuan (+3.59%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.82%. The LC2605 contract closed at 168,780 yuan, up 1.22%. The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 1.7% to 22,217 tons, and the inventory decreased by 783 tons (-0.7%) [20] - Strategy View: The commodity market has rebounded continuously. The main contract of lithium carbonate reached the previous high and then fell back. This week, the weekly output and inventory of domestic lithium carbonate both decreased. The "rush - to - export" of batteries supports the off - season demand, and the domestic output has reached a high point due to the maintenance of lithium salt plants. The short - term supply of the ore end is highly uncertain, the overall commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the sharp rise of lithium prices hides the risk of a callback. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 160,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton [21][22] Alumina - Market Information: On January 22, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.7% to 2712 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading position increased. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas FOB price was stable. The import loss was 77 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipt increased, and the price of bauxite in Guinea decreased [24] - Strategy View: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2650 - 2800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [25] Stainless Steel - Market Information: The main stainless - steel contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 2.61%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The price of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome was stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 883,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.00% [27] - Strategy View: On January 14, Indonesia's mining authority said that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the market's optimistic sentiment has increased. Stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. Due to the limitation of raw material supply, the production schedules of many mainstream steel mills have slowed down, and the market supply is tight. In the short term, the market is expected to remain strong, and the price may show a high - level oscillation pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,230 yuan/ton [28]