Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate weakly within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, production increased against the seasonal trend, apparent demand continued to weaken, and inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited. The black - series prices continued to oscillate within the bottom range. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the macro - level is currently in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils, the possible marginal strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - The price of iron ore adjusted at a high level due to fluctuations in the commodity market sentiment and unexpected accident disturbances, showing a short - term oscillatory and weak trend. The overseas iron ore shipping volume continued to decline, and the proximal port arrivals decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, and the profitability of steel mills improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise. The follow - up focus is on the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of pig iron production [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were affected by the retreat of market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of silicomanganese was still loose, and that of ferrosilicon basically remained balanced. The future market trends of the two are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, the cost increase of manganese ore in the silicomanganese segment, and the possible supply contraction in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined last week due to the retreat of market sentiment. In the future, the overall commodity market may maintain a bullish sentiment, but the main focus is on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The supply - demand relationship between coking coal, coke, and downstream pig iron is relatively balanced, but the low inventory operation strategy of steel enterprises weakens the price - driving effect of restocking. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate and strengthen, with short - term market sentiment shocks and high - volatility risks [14][15]. - The price of industrial silicon oscillated and closed higher. The supply decreased due to the furnace shutdown of integrated enterprises, and the demand weakened due to the production reduction of polysilicon enterprises. If the production reduction of large northwest factories is implemented, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate repeatedly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The "anti - involution" expectation in the polysilicon industry is unclear, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the high - inventory pressure may be alleviated. The futures position and liquidity have fallen to a relatively low level, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and changes in exchange risk - control measures [20]. - The glass market sentiment turned from strong to weak, and the price oscillated and corrected. The supply was at a low level, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still higher than the same period in previous years. The supply - demand pattern remained in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [23]. - The price of soda ash continued to oscillate weakly due to the decline of the glass market. The supply was abundant, the demand was weak, and the inventory pressure remained. The market is in a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term [25]. Summary by Directory Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3124 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.224%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 28,244 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.7473 million lots, an increase of 5,016 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - The production of rebar increased against the seasonal trend, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - rolled Coil - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,287 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 179,427 tons, a decrease of 10,475 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4533 million lots, an increase of 4,160 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,270 yuan/ton, with no change, and that in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 786.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.32% (+2.50). The position changed by - 8,780 lots to 566,500 lots. The weighted position was 915,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.12% [4]. - The overseas iron ore shipping volume continued to decline, and the proximal port arrivals decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, and the profitability of steel mills improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise. The price adjusted at a high level and showed a short - term oscillatory and weak trend. The follow - up focus is on the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of pig iron production [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On January 22, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rebounded slightly, closing up 0.48% at 5,814 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a conversion to the futures price of 5,860 yuan/ton, a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price was in an oscillatory consolidation stage, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels at 6,000 yuan/ton and 6,250 yuan/ton and the support levels at 5,800 yuan/ton and 5,700 yuan/ton [7][8]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon was still loose, and there was an expectation of new capacity release. The inventory was high, and the demand from the downstream building materials industry was weak. However, these factors have mostly been reflected in the price. The future trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the cost increase of manganese ore [9][10]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.97% at 5,610 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a premium of 190 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price showed a short - term weak trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels at 5,850 yuan/ton and 6,000 yuan/ton and the support levels at 5,500 yuan/ton and 5,450 yuan/ton [8]. - The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon basically remained balanced, and there was a marginal improvement due to the maintenance and production conversion of some factories. The future trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the possible supply contraction due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - On January 22, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) rebounded after hitting the bottom, closing up 0.22% at 1,131.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,589.8 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted warehouse - receipt price was 1,400 yuan/ton, a premium of 268.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price was in a daily - level rebound cycle, but the trend was significantly weakened. Attention should be paid to the support at 1,130 yuan/ton and the rebound trend line below, and the pressure at 1,260 yuan/ton above [12][13]. - The price of coking coal oscillated and declined last week due to the retreat of market sentiment. The supply gradually recovered after the New Year's Day, and the pig iron repair was slightly less than expected, resulting in a marginal loosening of the supply - demand relationship. Considering the pre - holiday restocking of downstream enterprises, the overall supply - demand relationship between coking coal and downstream pig iron remained relatively balanced. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with short - term market sentiment shocks and high - volatility risks [14][15]. Coke - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.27% at 1,688 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,450 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted warehouse - receipt price was 1,704 yuan/ton, a premium of 16 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price broke below the short - term rebound trend line, and attention should be paid to the support at 1,650 yuan/ton [12][13]. - The price of coke oscillated and declined last week due to the retreat of market sentiment. The supply - demand relationship also showed a marginal loosening. Considering the pre - holiday restocking of downstream enterprises, the overall supply - demand relationship between coke and downstream pig iron remained relatively balanced. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with short - term market sentiment shocks and high - volatility risks [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8,825 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.51% (+45). The weighted contract position increased by 3,164 lots to 365,402 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 375 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was 25 yuan/ton [17]. - The price of industrial silicon oscillated and closed higher. The supply decreased due to the furnace shutdown of integrated enterprises in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia and the increase in the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang. The demand weakened due to the production reduction of polysilicon enterprises. If the production reduction of large northwest factories is implemented, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate repeatedly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 50,515 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.64% (+815). The weighted contract position decreased by 678 lots to 86,469 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 53.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was 3,485 yuan/ton [19]. - The "anti - involution" expectation in the polysilicon industry is unclear, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the high - inventory pressure may be alleviated. The futures position and liquidity have fallen to a relatively low level, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and changes in exchange risk - control measures [20]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - The main contract of glass closed at 1,039 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.61% (-17). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1,010 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,060 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises on January 16 was 53.013 million boxes, a decrease of 2.505 million boxes (-4.51%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5,222 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9,640 short positions [22]. - The glass market sentiment turned from strong to weak, and the price oscillated and corrected. The supply was at a low level, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still higher than the same period in previous years. The supply - demand pattern remained in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1,015 - 1,100 yuan/ton [23]. Soda Ash - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1,163 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.19% (-14). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,128 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises on January 16 was 1.575 million tons, an increase of 0.23 million tons (-4.51%), including 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 0.18 million tons, and 837,000 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 0.05 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 2,302 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 12,410 short positions [24]. - The price of soda ash continued to oscillate weakly due to the decline of the glass market. The supply was abundant, the demand was weak, and the inventory pressure remained. The market is in a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract reference price range of 1,123 - 1,220 yuan/ton [25].
五矿期货黑色建材日报-20260123
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-23 01:35