——2025年统计局房地产数据点评：去年销量降幅收窄，关注今年重要政策节点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [7]. Core Insights - In 2025, the sales, construction starts, and funding for real estate are expected to maintain a double-digit decline, but the decline is slightly narrowing. The price index for new and second-hand homes has also seen a reduction in decline, with the second-hand home price index in first-tier cities experiencing an expanded decline. Investment decline has significantly widened. As important policy thresholds approach, recent marginal policy optimizations may signal a reopening of the policy window. Current conventional policies still have room for adjustment, and extraordinary policies also have considerable leeway, although there is uncertainty regarding timing. Attention should be paid to subsequent important policy nodes. The current stock positions are not significantly overpriced, emphasizing leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and product strength. Additionally, focus on leading brokerage firms with stable cash flow, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [2][11][12]. Summary by Sections Sales and Construction - In 2025, the total sales of commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, and the sales area decreased by 8.7%. The decline in sales narrowed, with December sales down 23.6% and area down 15.6% year-on-year, maintaining a double-digit decline as expected. The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in December fell by 0.4% and 0.7% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 3.0% and 6.1%. The overall trend of volume and price adjustments is expected to continue, with increasing pressure on both residential and corporate sides [11][12]. Construction Starts and Completion - In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December seeing a 19.4% decline. The decline remains significant but has slightly narrowed. The completion area decreased by 18.1% year-on-year, with December down 18.3%. The overall trend indicates that the construction cycle has peaked and is expected to continue with double-digit declines in the short to medium term [11][12]. Funding and Investment - In 2025, the total funding for real estate companies decreased by 13.4% year-on-year, with December down 26.7%. The decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds was 7.3% and 12.2%, respectively, indicating continued financing pressure. The total investment in real estate development decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with December down 35.8%. The investment performance is expected to remain under pressure due to increasing sales pressure [11][12]. Annual Outlook - After over four years of rapid adjustment, key indicators in China's real estate sector have significantly declined from their peaks. The industry is likely entering a second half of adjustment, but short-term recovery signs are not evident. Under neutral expectations, the industry is expected to maintain double-digit declines in core indicators in 2026, although the rate of decline may narrow if policy effects exceed expectations [11][12].