山金期货黑色板块日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and re - discount rates has boosted market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season of the steel market, and the supply side shows a decline in global shipments and arrivals. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased while inventory increased. The production remained basically unchanged. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough, with a small rebound in the short term and strong resistance above [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions with a light position, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the shock range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel's apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. The accident of a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - Supply: Global shipments continued to decline, and arrivals decreased. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. - Technical Analysis: After breaking through the recent shock range, the futures price rose strongly but has adjusted significantly in recent days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and back to the upper edge of the previous shock range. It may have some support here, but the upward trend may end, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In mid - January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly, down 0.3% month - on - month, 1.7% lower than at the beginning of the year, and 5.2% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Fenix Resources, an Australian iron ore producer, increased its mining and shipping volume in Q4 2025 and raised its shipping target for fiscal year 2026 [6]. - As of the week of January 22, the production and factory inventory of threaded rods increased, the social inventory increased for the third consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased [6]. - South32's Australian manganese industry had a decrease in manganese ore production in Q4 2025 but an increase in sales. The annual output guidance for 2026 remains unchanged [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton this week [7]. - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased, and the theoretical profit of soda ash decreased [7].