2026年01月23日:期货市场交易指引-20260123
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-23 01:38
- Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Exiting long positions on copper at high prices and waiting and seeing; strengthening observation on aluminum; waiting and seeing on nickel; range trading or taking profits on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; expecting silver to be strong; expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - Energy and Chemicals: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash (temporarily waiting and seeing), styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; expecting polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to be weak and volatile [1] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Looking for short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not recommending short - chasing for eggs in the short - term; being cautious about chasing high for corn and waiting for rebounds to hedge; being bearish on soybean meal at high prices; expecting rapeseed oil to be weak and volatile, and the rebound of soybean and palm oil to be limited [1] 2. Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. It analyzes the trends of different industries and gives corresponding investment strategies [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - Stock Indices: Expected to move in a range in the short - term, bullish in the medium - to - long - term, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations [5] - Government Bonds: Expected to move in a range. The yield curve shows a bull - flattening trend, with a hand - over from trading positions to allocation positions [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Expected to move in a range, suggesting short - term trading. Weak demand and high inventory pressure the price, but supply disruptions may limit the downside [7] - Rebar: Expected to move in a range. The price is at a neutral valuation. Steel exports may weaken, and short - term trading within a range is recommended [7] - Glass: Expected to move in a range, suggesting waiting and seeing. Speculative sentiment has cooled, and the inventory is shifting to the middle - stream. The price may decline before the Spring Festival [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Expected to fall after rising. Suggesting exiting long positions at high prices and waiting and seeing. The short - term support for copper prices has decreased, and the inventory is expected to increase [10][11] - Aluminum: Expected to be volatile at a high level, suggesting strengthening observation. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the price may adjust at a high level [13] - Nickel: Expected to move in a range, suggesting waiting and seeing. The nickel ore is strong, but the overall fundamentals are weak, and the price may be under pressure [15] - Tin: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading or taking profits on previous long positions. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable [16] - Silver: Expected to be strong, suggesting holding long positions and being cautious about new positions. Geopolitical tensions and economic data support the price [17] - Gold: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading and being cautious about chasing high. Geopolitical and economic factors support the price [17] - Lithium Carbonate: Expected to move in a range. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price may be affected by the mining permit in Yichun [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have been reached, suggesting range trading. The domestic demand is weak, but the low valuation and export policies may bring opportunities [18][20] - Caustic Soda: Expected to be volatile at a low level, suggesting waiting and seeing. The demand is weak, and the supply is high, with pressure on the price [20] - Styrene: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The price has rebounded, but the high valuation requires caution [22] - Rubber: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is shrinking, and the cost supports the price, but the inventory pressure exists [22] - Urea: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, with the price fluctuating within a range [23] - Methanol: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed, with the price being affected by geopolitical and inventory factors [24] - Polyolefins: Expected to be weak and volatile. The supply and demand both have changes, and the price may have limited upside [25] - Soda Ash: Suggesting waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support may limit the decline [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply - demand balance is improving, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [28] - Apples: Expected to be weak and volatile. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading volume is not high [28] - Jujubes: Expected to be weak and volatile. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Expected to build a bottom. The spot price has stopped falling, and the futures price has rebounded. In the short - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended; in the long - term, being cautious about bullishness and hedging at high profits [30][31] - Eggs: Expected to rebound at a low level. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not recommending short - chasing. In the medium - term, the supply pressure may be relieved; in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [33][34] - Corn: Expected to correct at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and being cautious about chasing high. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose [35][36] - Soybean Meal: Expected to be volatile at a low level. The short - term support is strong, and the long - term price may be under pressure. Suggesting being bullish on the near - term contract and bearish on the far - term contract [37][38] - Oils and Fats: The rebound is limited. Rapeseed oil is expected to be weak and volatile, and the rebound of soybean and palm oil is limited. Suggesting being cautious about chasing high for soybean and palm oil and paying attention to the narrowing spread strategy [38][44]