工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强，多晶硅：注册仓单增加

Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, titled "Industrial Silicon: Upstream Production Cut, Oscillating with an Uptrend" [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,825 yuan/ton, with a change of 45 yuan from T - 1, 95 yuan from T - 5, and 135 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 230,130 lots, down 50,445 lots from T - 1, 5,712 lots from T - 5, and 85,196 lots from T - 22; its open interest is 228,488 lots, up 4,801 lots from T - 1, down 2,232 lots from T - 5, and up 18,615 lots from T - 22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 50,515 yuan/ton, up 815 yuan from T - 1 and 1,845 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 10,922 lots, down 4,562 lots from T - 1 and 1,781 lots from T - 5; its open interest is 43,318 lots, down 602 lots from T - 1 and 4,480 lots from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against East China Si5530) is +425 yuan/ton, with a change of -45 yuan from T - 1, -95 yuan from T - 5, and -85 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against East China Si4210) is +25 yuan/ton, with a change of -45 yuan from T - 1, -95 yuan from T - 5, and 1,290 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) is -125 yuan/ton, with a change of -45 yuan from T - 1, -95 yuan from T - 5, and -280 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +3,735 yuan/ton, with a change of -1,315 yuan from T - 1, -2,845 yuan from T - 5, and 10,960 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 50 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Yunnan Si4210 price is 10,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan from T - 1, 750 yuan from T - 5, and up 1,600 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is -2,306.5 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from T - 1, down 270 yuan from T - 5, and down 110 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Silicon plant profit (Yunnan new standard 553) is -5,529 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from T - 1, down 240 yuan from T - 5, and down 275 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan from T - 1, 0.5 yuan from T - 5, and up 1.9 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.6 tons, with an increase of 0.1 tons from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 21.3 tons, with an increase of 0.56 tons from T - 5 and 2.1 tons from T - 22 [2] - Industrial silicon - industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) is 76.9 tons, with an increase of 0.66 tons from T - 5 and 2.16 tons from T - 22 [2] - Industrial silicon - futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.4 tons, up 0.5 tons from T - 1, 0.8 tons from T - 5, and 1.9 tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 33.0 tons, with an increase of 0.9 tons from T - 5 and 2.7 tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; in Yunnan, it is 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 and 20 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Washed coking coal price in Xinjiang is 1,475 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; in Ningxia, it is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Maoming coke price is 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Yangzi coke price is 2,340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Graphite electrode price is 12,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; carbon electrode price is 7,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan from T - 1, 750 yuan from T - 5, and up 1,600 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Trichlorosilane price is 3,425 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Silicon powder (99 silicon) price is 9,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm) price is 1.65 yuan/piece, down 0.03 yuan from T - 1, 0.04 yuan from T - 5, and up 0.17 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm) price is 0.41 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.02 yuan from T - 5, and down 0.71 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Component (N - type - 210mm, centralized) price is 0.711 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.002 yuan from T - 5, and up 0.023 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) price is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and down 1.5 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 299 yuan from T - 5, and down 65 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon - DMC price is 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22 [2] - DMC enterprise profit is 1,928 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 66 yuan from T - 5, and up 218 yuan from T - 22 [2] Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 price is 23,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 150 yuan from T - 5, and up 2,150 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 110 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from T - 1, up 300 yuan from T - 5, and up 230 yuan from T - 22 [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year (the growth rate of added value is the real growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month - on - month perspective, in December, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.49% compared with the previous month. In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1; polysilicon trend intensity is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]