烧碱：低位震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of caustic soda has been continuously declining due to cost reduction, supply - demand collapse, and high inventory. The near - term contracts (02 and 03) face significant delivery pressure, and the downward price trend is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the far - term contracts (04, 05 and later) may face a situation of cost increase and expected supply reduction, so short - selling these contracts should be done with caution [2]. - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 03 contract futures price is 1948. The cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 615, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 1922, and the basis is - 26 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continues to decline. Some orders are negotiated on a case - by - case basis. The unloading of two major alumina downstream customers is continuously difficult, making it hard for caustic soda plants to reduce inventory. Although there is some procurement from alumina producers outside the province, the impact is limited [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - On the demand side, the oversupply situation of alumina has not changed in the short term. The expectation of production cuts suppresses the hoarding of caustic soda, and non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. - On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Without losses reaching the cash - flow cost, manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production. - In general, the high inventory of caustic soda makes it difficult to reverse the downward price trend before the Spring Festival. However, the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable after April, so the far - term contracts may face a situation of cost increase and expected supply reduction [2].