LLDPE：风偏继续外溢，基差走弱明显

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The risk preference of LLDPE continues to spill over, and the basis weakens significantly. The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, the mid - stream order placement improves, but the basis weakens. The downstream product profit is compressed, resisting high prices. The external quotation rises, and the long - term import profit is opened. The raw material end oil price strengthens, the ethylene monomer weakens, and the PE process profit is repaired. The supply side has new capacity trial - production and the maintenance plan decreases, and there is supply - demand pressure in the medium term[1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 is 6814, with a daily increase of 2.22%. The trading volume is 567,632, and the position changes by 11,162[1] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the 05 contract is - 164 (previous day: - 146), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 31 (previous day: - 28)[1] - Spot Price Data: The spot price in North China is 6650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6520), in East China is 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6650), and in South China is 6750 yuan/ton (previous day: 6700)[1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, and the mid - stream order placement improves again. The production of standard products continues to rise, the trading volume weakens significantly, and the basis weakens sharply. The downstream product profit is compressed and resists high prices. The external quotation rises, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is opened, and the importer's trading volume increases. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the US dollar market to run strongly[1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end oil price strengthens, the Middle East geopolitical risk is not released, the ethylene monomer link weakens, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are repaired. The PE futures market continues to rebound, the trading volume is mostly concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising price to replenish goods. The downstream agricultural film is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but after the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, the factory inventory decreases slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial - production, the maintenance plan in January decreases month - on - month, some FD switches back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory capacity and weakening demand in the medium term still needs to be concerned[2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1[3]