宁证期货今日早评-20260123

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Industries No investment ratings for industries are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The US economy remains strong, boosting silver. However, short - term upward momentum for silver is limited, and the interaction between gold and silver should be monitored [1]. - Domestic methanol has high production but falling downstream demand. Port inventory has slightly increased, and the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals of coking coal will gradually improve, and the spot price has upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The supply of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - Steel demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues. It is recommended to wait and see for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - Palm oil futures prices are likely to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal will follow the external market, and it lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to strengthen with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Gold has risen again due to geopolitical events, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of copper are weak, and it is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [8]. - The international oil price has fallen, and there is currently no significant upward driving force in the crude oil market [9]. - PTA supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, but the inventory build - up is limited, and it mainly follows raw material price fluctuations [11]. - Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. - The supply - demand of aluminum is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term with new production capacity pressure and a decline in high - level inventory [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Product Precious Metals - Silver: The US GDP growth, inflation data, and employment situation show a strong economy, which boosts silver. Long - term bullish, short - term upward momentum is limited [1]. - Gold: Geopolitical events such as the Greenland issue have led to an increase in gold prices. Excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. Energy - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions have eased, US inventory has increased, and the market lacks upward driving force. Short - term trading is appropriate [9]. Chemicals - Methanol: High domestic production, falling downstream demand, rising port inventory. Expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - PTA: Supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, inventory build - up is limited, and it follows raw material price fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - PVC: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, but the price is relatively firm. Expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Soda Ash: New production capacity pressure, high - level inventory decline, and expected short - term fluctuations [14][15]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The short - term supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to wait for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - Soybean Meal: Follows the external market in the short term, lacks a clear direction. Recommended to wait and see [7]. - Natural Rubber: Supply is shrinking overseas, but there is pressure from imports and inventory. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Metals - Coking Coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, fundamentals will improve, spot price has upward momentum, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - Iron Ore: Supply is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - Rebar: Demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - Aluminum: Supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12].