去美元化加速，警惕美元指数下行风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain range - bound. In the short - term, it warns of the risk of a sudden drop in the US dollar index due to cracks in the US - ally relationship. The exchange rate is expected to continue trading in the range of 6.95 - 7.00, and a breakthrough from the current range requires new external catalysts from the interest or policy side [32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Quantity - Price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of 3 - month USD/CNY options shows an appreciation trend of the RMB. The Put - end volatility is still higher than the Call - end, and the Put - end volatility has decreased overall [4]. - The term structure data of the USD/CNY futures and forward premium/discount, as well as the US - China interest rate spread, are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data in the text [6]. 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The value of the counter - cyclical factor has moved down, and the negative adjustment signal has strengthened. There is also volatility in the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro - Economic Situation - Interest Rate and Liquidity: There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on January 14 was 777 billion (- 84.3 billion compared to the previous period), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion (- 65.6 billion compared to the previous period). The Fed's balance sheet increased by about 40 billion compared to December 10. There are uncertainties in the Fed chair nomination, with Kevin Warsh having a 62% probability of being nominated according to betting websites, and current chair Powell facing criminal charges, which may lead to an increased probability of him remaining as a governor after his term expires [15]. - US Economic Situation: The employment authority has declined, with non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations. Inflation in December was lower than expected, supporting subsequent interest rate cuts. The economic outlook has been revised upwards, with a slight decline in PMI and a slight increase in real estate sales in December [17]. - De - dollarization: The US's external relations have deteriorated. Issues such as the Greenland issue, the Iran issue, and Canada's opposition to US tariffs have led to an acceleration of de - dollarization. For example, a Danish pension fund plans to sell all its US Treasury bonds, and the EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods [19][20]. - Chinese Economic Situation: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. In December, imports and exports showed resilience, but there was still significant pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption slowed down. The government's policy window has loosened under increasing pressure, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [21]. - December Economic Situation in 2025: The contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to economic growth were 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively in 2025, and 52.9%, 16.0%, and 31.1% respectively in the fourth quarter [23][26]. 3.2.2 Overall View - The current situation shows that the economic expectation difference is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest rate spread is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. The strategy is to expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to maintain a range - bound movement. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the risk of a sudden drop in the US dollar index [32]. 3.2.3 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there are various policy events and economic cycles. In the first quarter, there are OPEC and FOMC meetings, and the government work report. In the second quarter, there are events such as the expiration of Powell's term and the FOMC meeting. In the third quarter, there is a political bureau meeting and another FOMC meeting. In the fourth quarter, there are the US mid - term elections and the expiration of Sino - US tariff extensions. There are also inventory cycle turning points, re - balancing of economic facts and policies, and tariff re - games [35].