中辉黑色观点-20260123

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) have a "Cautiously Bullish" rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Demand decreased slightly month-on-month, production increased supported by profits, and inventory began to accumulate. Steel mill profits are average, and high raw material prices suppress restocking enthusiasm. Overall, it will maintain range-bound operation [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreased slightly but the absolute level is high and the de-stocking speed is still slow. Spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market, and it will maintain range-bound operation in the medium term [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: In this period, both arrivals and shipments of overseas ore decreased. After the price decline, some steel enterprises showed purchasing interest, driving the ore price to strengthen periodically [1][6][7] - Coke: The first round of price hikes was blocked. After the recent increase in raw material coal prices, coke enterprises' losses deepened, but short-term production enthusiasm is still okay and supply decreased slightly month-on-month. Iron water production was basically flat month-on-month, and downstream restocking enthusiasm is average, mainly buying on demand. The market may fluctuate after the previous rapid decline on the futures market [1][9][10] - Coking Coal: Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, supply increased month-on-month, and inventory started to accumulate. In terms of imports, port clearance volume has returned to the same high level as the same period, and spot prices are under pressure to fall. Downstream restocking mentality is cautious. The market may fluctuate after the previous rapid decline on the futures market [1][12][13] - Ferromanganese: Regional supply increased month-on-month, demand improved marginally, and inventory increased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has started one after another, and the recently announced tender prices are mostly concentrated between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5,920 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 150 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain range-bound operation in the short term [1][15][16] - Ferrosilicon: Supply in the main production areas decreased slightly month-on-month, demand improved marginally, and inventory increased significantly. A new round of steel tenders has started one after another, and the final price of a landmark steel mill is 5,760 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the actions of other steel mills. It is expected to maintain range-bound operation in the short term [1][15][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - Rebar Futures: The latest price of Rebar 01 is 3,190, down 2; Rebar 05 is 3,117; Rebar 10 is 3,162, up 3. The basis and spread data also show corresponding changes [2] - Hot-rolled Coil Futures: The latest price of Hot-rolled Coil 01 is 3,316, up 1; Hot-rolled Coil 05 is 3,287, up 1; Hot-rolled Coil 10 is 3,302, down 3. The basis and spread data also show corresponding changes [2] - Coke Futures: The latest price of Coke 1-month contract is 1,863.0, down 9.0; Coke 5-month contract is 1,688.0, up 4.5; Coke 9-month contract is 1,758.0, down 0.5. The basis and spread data also have corresponding changes [8] - Coking Coal Futures: The latest price of Coking Coal 1-month contract is 1,367.0, up 0.5; Coking Coal 5-month contract is 1,131.5, up 2.5; Coking Coal 9-month contract is 1,203.0, unchanged. The basis and spread data also have corresponding changes [11] - Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon Futures: For ferromanganese, the latest price of Manganese Silicon 01 is 5,910, down 4; Manganese Silicon 05 is 5,814, up 28; Manganese Silicon 09 is 5,860, up 16. For ferrosilicon, the latest price of Ferrosilicon 01 is 5,744; Ferrosilicon 05 and Ferrosilicon 09 also have corresponding price and spread data [14] 3.2 Weekly Data - Coke: The capacity utilization rate of all independent coke enterprises was 72.4%, down 0.1 percentage point; the daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills was 228.1, up 0.1; the daily average coke production of sample coking plants was 63.3, down 0.1; the daily average coke production of 247 steel mills was 46.4, down 0.2; sample coking plant coke inventory was 81.5, down 0.4; 247 steel mills' coke inventory was 661.6, up 11.3; inventory available days were 12.4 days, up 0.4 days; port coke inventory was 196.1, up 8.0; independent coking enterprise's profit per ton of coke was -65.0, down 20.0 [8] - Coking Coal: The sample coal washing plant's start-up rate was 61.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the daily average clean coal production of sample coal washing plants was 52.1, unchanged; the daily average coke production of sample coking plants was 50.0, unchanged; the daily average coke production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.2; sample coking plant's coking coal inventory was 995.2, up 40.4; inventory available days were 15.0 days, up 0.6 days; 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 803.2, up 1.0; inventory available days were 12.9 days, unchanged; total port coking coal inventory was 289.4, down 9.5 [11] - Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon: The start-up rate of ferromanganese enterprises was 36.21%, up 0.15 percentage points; the start-up rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.09%, down 0.12 percentage points; the output of 187 ferromanganese enterprises was 191,135, up 560; the inventory of 63 ferromanganese enterprises was 373,000, up 200; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises was 98,400, down 300; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,220, up 3,470 [14]