中辉农产品观点-20260123

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Short-term Rebound: Soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to have short-term rebounds due to factors like inventory changes and positive market sentiments [1][3]. - Stop Falling and Rebound: Rapeseed meal is likely to stop falling and rebound, but a cautious view is recommended due to long - term supply changes [1][6]. - Short - term Rebound: Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound, yet chasing high prices should be done with caution [1][8]. - Short - term Oscillation: Rapeseed oil is predicted to have short - term oscillations, with its decline limited by the high basis [1]. - Oscillatory Adjustment: Cotton is expected to have oscillatory adjustments in the short - term, with potential for recovery in the long - term [1][12]. - Short - term Rebound: Jujube may experience a short - term rebound as high inventory reduction accelerates, but overall it is under pressure [1][14]. - Beware of Callback: For live pigs, there is a need to beware of callback pressure in both the near - term and far - term contracts [1][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Inventory and Import: This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month, and the estimated imports in February are lower compared to the same period last year, indicating an expected de - stocking phase [1][3]. - Market Sentiment and Fundamentals: Positive talks between Chinese and US officials boosted market confidence in US soybean exports. Slow start of South American soybean harvest (Brazil's harvest rate is 2.3%, lower than the five - year average) and drought in some parts of Argentina provided fundamental support for prices [1][3]. - Price Movement: Soybean meal rebounded significantly from its low yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America in the future [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Import and Supply: There was zero rapeseed import in January, and the average monthly import in February and March is 120,000 tons, much lower than the same period last year. The spot inventory pressure of rapeseed meal has been alleviated, but the supply is tight, and the spot trading is light during the off - season [1][6]. - Long - term Supply: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending stocks, the easing of China - Canada trade relations and the reduction of the comprehensive import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% will significantly ease the domestic import supply in the long - term [1][6]. - Price Outlook: A cautious view is recommended for the bullish outlook on rapeseed meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - Production and Export: The latest data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month decreased significantly month - on - month, which is positive for market sentiment. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in January [1][8]. - Price Movement: Palm oil continued to close higher yesterday. However, due to the recent high rebound, chasing high prices should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][8]. Cotton - International Situation: The January USDA data is slightly bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of the external bulk commodities provide support for the cotton market. The short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong [1][10][12]. - Domestic Situation: Domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The raw material inventory pressure has further increased. The import side is gradually realizing the previous internal - external price difference pressure. On the demand side, domestic consumption is in the off - season, and textile mills are gradually on holiday at the end of the year, with weakening support. The market is also affected by the poor retail performance in December [1][11][12]. - Price Outlook: The short - term market is expected to adjust weakly. In the long - term, considering the reduction in planting and the expectation of replenishment at home and abroad, attention should be paid to the recovery performance after the release of negative factors [1][12]. Jujube - Supply and Demand: The acquisition in the production areas is over, and the market supply has increased. At the same time, it has entered the winter consumption peak season. The high inventory reduction has accelerated, which may promote a short - term rebound [1][14]. - Price Outlook: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the consumption peak season, the futures market fluctuates more. In the context of a loose supply - demand pattern, the overall trend is expected to be under pressure, but short - term rebound opportunities can be noted in the context of the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - Short - term Situation: As of now, the slaughter progress in the first 10 days of January is relatively slow. As the time approaches the end of January, the pre - festival slaughter pressure increases. The recent spot price rebound has increased the willingness of group farms to slaughter. The current high standard - fat price difference has driven the entry of second - fattening, and the contradiction in the spot market may be postponed [1][16]. - Medium - term Situation: The number of new - born piglets in steel - linked sample enterprises in December increased month - on - month, and the feed efficiency of piglets continued to increase in December. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is difficult to improve significantly [16]. - Long - term Situation: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in the fourth quarter, but the de - stocking speed was slow, and the far - month contracts face certain hedging pressure. The industry has been in a loss situation for more than 17 weeks, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of losses [16][17]. - Price Outlook: As the end of January approaches, the slaughter pressure increases, and the price support becomes more difficult. The demand side has declined due to the end of the stocking market. The near - month contracts may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contracts are also under pressure in the short - term [1][17].