西南期货早间评论-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures may face pressure, stock index futures' volatility center may gradually rise, and precious metals' market volatility may increase. Different commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - Open Market Operation: On January 22, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [5]. - Policy Expectation: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [5]. - Outlook: Treasury bond futures may face certain pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 0.19%, - 0.51%, 0.53%, and 0.91% respectively [8]. - Analysis: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,087.58 with a decrease of 0.43%, and the silver main contract closed at 23,339 with an increase of 0.90% [10]. - Analysis: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Performance: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - Analysis: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [12][13]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [14]. - Analysis: The demand for iron ore has decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened. Technically, it shows signs of stabilizing after a decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [16]. - Analysis: The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. However, the demand for coke has decreased due to the decline in iron - making production. Technically, it may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon rose by 0.48% and 0.94% respectively. The spot prices also changed [19]. - Analysis: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues. The cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, closing above the 5 - day moving average [20]. - Analysis: Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US is expanding Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. The market is concerned about the over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward, closing above the moving average group [23]. - Analysis: The import of fuel oil in Asia from the West has increased, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in good condition. The price has risen due to increased downstream demand after the holidays and expected pre - Spring Festival demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market showed a rising trend, and the Yuyao LLDPE market adjusted prices [26]. - Analysis: The开工 rate has declined due to low - temperature and labor shortages, but the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing fields is growing steadily. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but PDH is still in deep losses. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose by 4.50%, and the Shandong mainstream price increased [28]. - Analysis: The rise in the synthetic rubber market is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but weak downstream demand limits the increase. It is expected to be mainly in a strong - oscillation pattern [28][29][30]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main natural rubber contracts and 20 - grade rubber contracts rose, and the Shanghai spot price increased [31]. - Analysis: The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, and the demand from downstream tire enterprises has improved. However, the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31][32]. PVC - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose by 2.21%, and the spot price increased [33]. - Analysis: In the short term, it is the traditional off - season for PVC, but the market may oscillate strongly under policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty of demand [33][34]. Urea - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main urea contract rose by 1.30%, and the Shandong Linyi price increased [35]. - Analysis: In the short term, urea prices will maintain a strong - oscillation pattern, driven by export demand and cost support. The daily production is expected to remain high, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is increasing, while the demand from the board industry is decreasing [35][36]. p - Xylene (PX) - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose by 2.13%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable [37]. - Analysis: The PX operating rate has declined, and the cost of crude oil may provide support. In the short term, it may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the range and pay attention to external crude oil fluctuations and macro - policy changes [37][38]. PTA - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.75% [39]. - Analysis: The PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has not changed much recently, and the demand has decreased seasonally. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory build - up in January and February. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose by 4.51% [40]. - Analysis: The supply has decreased slightly due to increased domestic and foreign device maintenance, but the port inventory is under pressure, and the pre - arrival volume has increased significantly. It is expected to have pressure on the price in January and February. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose by 2.31% [42]. - Analysis: The supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and the sales have improved. The terminal factories are mainly consuming raw - material inventories. The low inventory may provide support at the bottom. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic and oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and pre - holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [42]. Bottle - Grade PET - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 3.39%, and the processing fee has recovered [43]. - Analysis: The production load of bottle - grade PET has slightly decreased, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still the cost end. It is expected to follow the cost - end oscillation. Investors should participate carefully, control risks, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [43][44]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2605 soda ash contract closed at 1185 yuan/ton, rising 1.46% [45]. - Analysis: The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose, and the price is stable. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream demand is average. It shows obvious off - season characteristics. It is recommended to be cautious as the market lacks substantial support in the short term [45][46]. Glass - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2605 glass contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, rising 0.67% [47]. - Analysis: The supply - demand pattern of glass remains loose. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory has increased, and the sales of enterprises have slowed down. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48][49]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2603 caustic soda contract closed at 1948 yuan/ton, falling 0.51% [50]. - Analysis: Caustic soda shows obvious winter seasonal characteristics, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The market is in a weak state, and the outlook is not optimistic [50]. Pulp - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2605 pulp contract closed at 5380 yuan/ton, rising 0.34% [51]. - Analysis: The inventory of pulp has continued to accumulate, and the spot trading is light. The prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have declined. The downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [51]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55% to 168,780 yuan/ton [52]. - Analysis: The macro - liquidity has increased, and the supply of lithium carbonate is still high, while the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support at the bottom. However, the short - term volatility may increase [52]. Copper - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 100,270 yuan/ton, falling 0.43% [53]. - Analysis: The inflation in the US is still high, the international situation is tense, and the supply of copper is extremely tight. However, the high price has suppressed the actual demand, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is supported in the long term but restricted in the short term. The current risk is relatively high [53][54]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 24,070 yuan/ton, rising 0.21%, and the main alumina contract closed at 2729 yuan/ton, rising 1.15% [55]. - Analysis: The supply of bauxite is abundant, the production of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the ceiling. The demand is suppressed in the short term, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short alumina on rallies before the Spring Festival. The long - term outlook for aluminum prices is still optimistic, but there may be a short - term correction [55][56]. Zinc - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,530 yuan/ton, rising 0.74% [58]. - Analysis: The supply of zinc raw materials is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, and the consumption will weaken seasonally. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price may decline under pressure [58][59]. Lead - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [60]. - Analysis: The supply of lead is restricted by the shortage of raw materials, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead provides support, while the off - season demand restricts the upward space. It is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. Tin - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai tin contract rose by 1.7% to 417,250 yuan/ton [62]. - Analysis: The supply of tin is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production recovery. The demand shows certain resilience supported by emerging fields. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to risk control [62]. Nickel - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose by 0.28% to 142,730 yuan/ton [63]. - Analysis: The macro - situation and Indonesian policies have affected the nickel market. The cost of nickel production is expected to rise, but the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The market is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose by 1.50% to 2768 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose by 0.55% to 8084 yuan/ton. The spot prices also changed [64]. - Analysis: The import of soybeans has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in loss, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [64][65]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil has reached a two - month high. The export of palm oil products in Malaysia has increased, and the production has decreased [66]. - Analysis: The production of palm oil may decline, the demand is strong, and the inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [66][67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed has little change, and the import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China has changed [69]. - Analysis: China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. Investors can consider holding positions to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69][70]. Cotton - Market Performance: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external - market cotton fluctuated [71]. - Analysis: The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory build