格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, the US biodiesel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil stop falling and rebound, while rapeseed oil bottoms out and stabilizes. With the US interest - rate cut, the financial attributes of vegetable oils are enhanced, and it is advisable to adopt a long - term bullish strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the near - month contracts should be treated with a rebound mindset, and the opportunity to lay out new short positions for the 09 contracts should be awaited after the rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oils Market Performance - On January 22, vegetable oils continued their strong trend with a large inflow of funds. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding increases in positions [1]. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns, with the more active March contract up $0.26 or 0.4% to $60.62 per barrel [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March, and the EPA is considering setting biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 11.4% [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters from 2025 [1]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 38,300 tons week - on - week, a 1.79% decrease [2]. Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy makes US soybean oil oscillate strongly. In Malaysia, good export data and concerns about supply boost palm oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil news is mixed, palm oil benefits from the US biodiesel policy and improved export data, and rapeseed oil follows related oils in a wide - range oscillation [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, continue to hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly enter long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance - On January 22, due to pre - festival stockpiling, soybean meal inventory decreased, and previous short positions left the market, resulting in a technical rebound. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding changes in positions [2]. Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment ahead of schedule [3]. - In January 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3]. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate [3]. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the same period in previous years [3]. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the growth status was good [3]. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean export volume will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from last year [3]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories also changed [3]. - The January 13 import soybean auction had a 100% transaction rate [3]. Market Logic - Externally, slow South American soybean harvests strengthen US soybean futures prices. Domestically, oil - mill prices rise with the market, and downstream buyers are active in stockpiling. The impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations on rapeseed meal supply and demand is limited in the short term. With short - position funds leaving the market, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal rebounds, but the overall bullish sentiment is cautious [4]. Trading Strategy - Operate the 05 contracts of double - meal with a rebound mindset, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions for the 09 contracts after the rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4]. - There is currently no arbitrage strategy [4].