宏观金融数据日报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current LPR quotes remain stable. The main reasons are that the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remains unchanged and the bank's liability cost is stable while the net interest margin is at a historical low, so commercial banks lack the motivation to actively lower LPR [4]. - Although the valuation levels of some technology themes in the A - share market are at historical highs, the overall A - share valuation is at a reasonable and neutral level. The regulatory attitude is to crack down on "pseudo - leaders" without fundamental support, and the policy continues to protect the "long - bull" pattern of the stock index. The current capital - driven force for the market is still strong, and the domestic fundamentals are in the bottom - building stage. It is expected that the upward trend of the stock index has not ended, and the short - term shock adjustment space is limited. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Interest Rates and Bond Market - DRO01 closed at 1.42 with a 9.59bp increase, DR007 closed at 1.51 with a 1.22bp increase, GC001 closed at 1.53 with a 3.50bp decrease, GC007 closed at 1.56 with a 0.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.20bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.28 with a 0.25bp increase, the 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.55 with a 1.00bp increase, the 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.84 with a 0.65bp increase, and the 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.26 with a 4.00bp decrease [3]. - The central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. The maturity of reverse repurchase on the same day was 179.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [3]. Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.01% to 4723.7, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.46% to 3053.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.57% to 8387.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.75% to 8309.3 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume decreased by 4.7% to 114,719, and the position increased by 1.0% to 289,557; IH trading volume decreased by 3.5% to 52,603, and the position increased by 1.5% to 97,532; IC trading volume decreased by 19.5% to 138,385, and the position decreased by 0.1% to 329,619; IM trading volume decreased by 19.5% to 172,599, and the position decreased by 2.5% to 372,277 [5]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day. Most industry sectors closed up, with aerospace, mining, shipbuilding, glass fiber, gas, petroleum, photovoltaic equipment, coal, and cement building materials sectors leading the gains, while electronic chemicals and insurance sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF contracts: The current - month contract was at a 0.46% premium, the next - month contract at a 0.58% premium, the current - quarter contract at a 2.13% premium, and the next - quarter contract at a 3.16% premium [7]. - The basis of IH contracts: The current - month contract was at a 1.60% discount, the next - month contract at a 1.69% discount, the current - quarter contract at a 0.36% discount, and the next - quarter contract at a 1.37% premium [7]. - The basis of IC contracts: The current - month contract was at a 2.46% discount, the next - month contract at a 0.95% discount, the current - quarter contract at a 2.29% premium, and the next - quarter contract at a 3.50% premium [7]. - The basis of IM contracts: The current - month contract was at a 1.31% discount, the next - month contract at a 1.29% premium, the current - quarter contract at a 5.64% premium, and the next - quarter contract at a 6.57% premium [7].